Tag: Fun With Numbers

A Stars Hollow Gazette

Well folks here it is.

Now unlike some commentators (Jim Cramer) I don’t blame Obama except to this extent- why the fuck is he listening to Tim Geithner and Larry Summers and not Paul Krugman and Nouriel Roubini?  Or even Jim Baker- yes that one.

Jim Cramer says we have to delay the reforms in Obama’s forward looking budget (the one Krugman likes very much) until Wall Street stablizes.

HE KNOWS NOTHING!

Fuck Wall Street.  They just want to keep running their leveraged Ponzi schemes.  They whine and whine that there are no sure investments.  Get a fucking job and work for a living losers!

We can’t afford a Carbon Tax?  We can’t NOT afford a Carbon Tax unless you’ve suddenly grown gills Jim.  You think Obama’s a socialist who’s been studying Lenin’s bank seizures?  Let me have a crack at it.

You’d be lucky to be living in a car under a bridge again Jim.  I’d put you to work digging ditches.

H/T Compound F

• When last we chatted.
• Fun with Numbers
• Dow 6000

A Stars Hollow Gazette

I call these diaries Fun with Numbers because for me part of the attraction is working out the HTML (which delights Caribou Barbie who is easily distracted by bright and shiny things).  I really started paying attention to the economy when it became apparent the the W years were in fact nothing but a scam.

These are some pieces I wrote before I started having fun-

• 22.07- Thanks for nothing. Sep 17, 2008
• The Stars Hollow Gazette Sep 28, 2008
• Dow 6000 Oct 08, 2008

• Happy Anniversary! Oct 09, 2008

Happy Anniversary! covers the dates from October 1st to October 9th including the anniversary of the HIGHEST DOW EVER!, 14,164 on October 9, 2007.  It’s the first time I started having fun with numbers.

You’ll notice they’re all very red.

Over those 7 days alone (and those would be trading days) the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2,271.47 points.  Why use the DJIA?  Why not, it’s a broad and easily tracked indicator as well as one of the most popular.  Economists may quibble but I’m not an economist.

I’m a critic.

Fun With Numbers

I started my data set September 26th, the Bail Out Boost, followed immediately by September 29th, the Wall Street Snit Fit, the largest single day point loss for the Dow ever, -777.68.  Let’s take a moment to pause and reflect that it was because Congress (thank goodness for small favors) didn’t give Paulson 700 BILLION dollars for an extortion note he scribbled on the back of a napkin.

• We interrupt this program Thu Oct 16, 2008
• Drive Time Thu Oct 23, 2008
• Monday Morning Market Predictions Mon Oct 27, 2008
• Madam Zelda! Madam Zelda! Is it true this house is haunted?! Wed Nov 19, 2008

November 19th is the last time I go back all the way to the beginning because the table was starting to get a little long, but I don’t want people to forget how we must bow down before her Bartiromoness and all the Galts for they know ever so much more than us mere serfs and peons.

• The Stars Hollow Gazette Mon Dec 01, 2008

This one only covers 7 trading days and it has a lot a of green in it which made Caribou Barbie very happy, but it also includes November 20th when the Dow fell 444.99 points and finished at 7,552.29.

That’s the November bottom you keep hearing about on CNBC.

• Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy! Wed Jan 21, 2009

An extensive record of FAIL!

Madam Zelda, Madam Zelda- Do The Markets Lie?

No, the markets are perfect and flawless indicators.

But Wait!

When last we chatted.

Santa Claus Rally.  Or maybe not so much.

Madam Zelda, Madam Zelda- Do The Markets Lie?

No, the markets are perfect and flawless indicators.

Madam Zelda!  Madam Zelda!

Has it only been 7 trading days?

A Stars Hollow Gazette

SILENCE!!!  The spirits are about to speak…

You know, I don’t just spend my time railing at our craven capitulationist Congress and their blow dried Beltway butt kissing Bozo court stenographers.  No siree.  I reserve a certain amount of bile for our corporate criminal culture of greed is good conmen and thieves.

When last we looked in the crystal ball, 18 trading days ago, my prediction was grim-

I expect a rally in anticipation of rate reduction from the next Fed meeting.  I expect a rally after they confirm market expectations.

I expect the fundamentals to remain the same.

Look for big Friday sell offs, why be long over the weekend?  What should you do in the mean time?

I feel the spirit of Jim Cramer…

Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Buy at the dips and sell into strength.  This market will not be done dropping until it bottoms out on the intraday lows, 6K to 7K.  For long term investments look at dividends and p/es, if you have the cash and the time.

Scary.

I think that over the next couple of days we’re going to test the market lows.  We might start hitting those 6Ks I talked about.

I’ve heard some gloom and dooming on CNBC about how Dow 4K is ‘the Great Depression all over again’, but I don’t agree that things are that dire yet.  I expect some serious defict spending and it’s all good (some types are better than others of course).

Anyway, at some point earnings and dividends are going to get more attractive than just leaving your money in your mattress.  There will be a bottom.

If you are liquid then you will pick up some bargains in the long run, there is no reason to believe that in 2 or 3 years values won’t approach historic levels.  And by historic I mean historical average growth, not tulip market prices.

Should have bought potato futures.  At least you can eat them.

I don’t pretend economic wisdom, but I see patterns in the data.  I use the DJIA as a broad indicator.  I don’t claim poblano prescience or accuracy, but if you want to see some brightly colored tables join me below.

A Stars Hollow Gazette

Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

When we left our story I had predicted a dead cat bounce and a sell off into the weekend.

How’d I do?

Madam Zelda!  Madam Zelda!  Is it true this house is haunted?!

SILENCE!!!  The spirits are about to speak…

A Stars Hollow Gazette

Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

When we left our story Her Bartiromoness was proclaiming the best week ever.

Oh fickle finger of fate.

What do I expect?  Another dead cat bounce followed by a sell off into the weekend because who wants to be long?

While we drown in debate I’d like to remind you of the implosion of the Republican Party.

Trading opens today at 9:30 am (et) (Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding) after a loss of 733.08 points, the second-worst single-day point loss by the Dow in history.

So to remind us how we’ve gotten where we’re at…

Happy Anniversary–

But remember, the market drop is because the Democrats forced stupid loans to brown people and I’m afraid the most (shudder) “LIBERAL” one will be President and Filibuster Proof Democratic Socialism reign so it’s all good for McDone.

We’re DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

WHEEEEEEEEE!

14,164.53, 10/9/07.

Let me take you on a quick trip back to the halcyon days of our youth, way back Friday before last.

The Dow stood at a sunny and proud 11,143.13 having gained 121.07 points that very day!

Then came the bad old politicians and they didn’t approve Wall St.’s $700 Billion Blank Check.  A number simply made up to be big enough.

Not so big now are you?

Monday the 29th of September Wall St. threw their -777.68 hissy fit.  Maria Bartiromo was particularly outraged that these mere Representatives could thwart her Saks shopping people’s will.  See, this is what you get when you don’t kiss butt!

Now that changed their Capitol Hill water carriers mind for sure.  What’s good for GM is good for the nation.  The business of America is business.

So the next day we had our dead cat bounce, +485.21, Dow at 10,850.66 a whole +263.07 for W‘s entire tenure.

Thanks for nothing.

Now hold on to your socks folks because we’re going to take one of those big shoots-

Happy Anniversary!