Monday Morning Market Predictions

(8 am. – promoted by ek hornbeck)

A Stars Hollow Gazette

Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

When we left our story I had predicted a dead cat bounce and a sell off into the weekend.

How’d I do?

Bail Out Boost! 9/26 Friday +121.07 11,143.13
Wall St. snit fit. 9/29 Monday -777.68 10,365.45
Bow to my Bartiromoness. 9/30 Tuesday +485.21 10,850.66
Down, down, down. 10/1 Wednesday -19.59 10,831.07
10/2 Thursday -348.22 10,482.85
10/3 Friday -157.47 10,325.38
10/6 Monday -369.88 9,955.50
10/7 Tuesday -508.39 9,447.11
10/8 Wednesday -189.01 9,258.10
10/9 Thursday -678.91 8,579.19
10/10 Friday -128.00 8,451.19
Big G7, G20 Summit. 10/13 Monday +936.42 9387.61
Oops. 10/14 Tuesday -76.62 9310.99
10/15 Wednesday -733.08 8577.91
Bounce. 10/16 Thursday +401.35 8979.26
10/17 Friday -127.04 8852.22
Bounce. 10/20 Monday +413.21 9265.43
10/21 Tuesday -213.77 9033.66
10/22 Wednesday -514.45 8519.21
Bounce. 10/23 Thursday +172.04 8691.25
10/24 Friday -312.30 8378.75

Madam Zelda!  Madam Zelda!  Is it true this house is haunted?!

SILENCE!!!  The spirits are about to speak…

I expect a rally in anticipation of rate reduction from the next Fed meeting.  I expect a rally after they confirm market expectations.

I expect the fundamentals to remain the same.

Look for big Friday sell offs, why be long over the weekend?  What should you do in the mean time?

I feel the spirit of Jim Cramer…

Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Buy at the dips and sell into strength.  This market will not be done dropping until it bottoms out on the intraday lows, 6K to 7K.  For long term investments look at dividends and p/es, if you have the cash and the time.  The Fed is going to try to re-inflate with low interest rates so I don’t see bonds and T-bills as attractive investments, might as well keep your money in a mattress.

Then again what do I know?

From Yahoo News Business

1 Oil falls to $63 as investors eye falling demand

By ALEX KENNEDY, Associated Press Writer

1 hr 26 mins ago

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to 17-month lows at $63 a barrel Monday in Asia as investors weighed Friday’s OPEC output cut against growing evidence of a severe global economic slowdown that would undermine crude demand.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell 32 cents to $63.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore.

Investors brushed off a 1.5 million barrel-a-day cut announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, focusing instead on falling crude demand as economies across the globe reel from the impact of a credit crisis.

2 With wreckage piling up, Fed eyes another rate cut

By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer

Sun Oct 26, 2:08 pm ET

WASHINGTON – As the economic wreckage piles dangerously higher, the Federal Reserve is prepared to ratchet down interest rates – perhaps to their lowest point in more than four years – with the hope of relieving some of the pain felt by many Americans.

The convergence of a housing collapse and a lockup in lending has created the worst financial crisis in more than a half-century. Alan Greenspan, who ran the Fed for 18 1/2 years, called it a “once-in-a century credit tsunami,” and conceded that he made mistakes that may have aggravated the economy’s slump.

With a recession seen as inevitable, if not already under way, any Fed rate cut would be aimed at cushioning the fallout.

3 Other woes makes foreclosure crisis hard to break

By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Business Writer

Sun Oct 26, 2:18 pm ET

WASHINGTON – Each day from July through September, more than 2,700 Americans lost their homes in foreclosure.

That number, up from 1,200 a day a year ago, is a sign that the mortgage industry and government programs have done little to help troubled homeowners.

The mortgage market’s troubles have proved to be far more serious and intractable than most in government or the private sector had predicted a year ago.

4 IMF pledges support for Ukraine and Hungary

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER and MIKE ECKEL, Associated Press Writers

Mon Oct 27, 12:02 am ET

WASHINGTON AP) – Seeking to combat a spreading global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund said Sunday it had reached a tentative agreement to provide Ukraine with $16.5 billion in loans and announced that emergency assistance for Hungary had cleared a key hurdle.

The decisions were announced by IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who stressed that the 185-nation lending agency would act with speed to provide support for countries whose economies are being buffeted by the crisis.

Strauss-Kahn said the loan for Ukraine was designed to bolster confidence and noted that the assistance was sizable in relation to the country’s borrowing rights with the IMF.

5 Asia stock markets resume slide on recession fears

By JEREMIAH MARQUEZ, AP Business Writer

1 hr 15 mins ago

HONG KONG – Asian stock markets resumed their downward slide Monday, led by a 12 percent plunge in the Philippines, as government rescue measures failed to ease fears that a global recession would be even worse than expected.

Investors were hesitant to wade back into equities, worried a stream of economic data from the U.S. this week could bring more bearish news about the world’s largest economy and trigger another round of selling, analysts said.

“Investors aren’t totally convinced the worst is over yet,” said Alex Tang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi in Hong Kong. “We’re probably moving sideways this week and will see more volatility.”

6 G7 fires warning shot on yen surge

By Kevin Plumberg, Reuters

1 hr 54 mins ago

HONG KONG (Reuters) – The Group of Seven warned the surging yen posed a threat to financial and economic stability on Monday in the latest coordinated effort by the world’s richest nations to contain worst financial crisis in 80 years.

The yen was the only currency mentioned in a brief G7 statement issued as it rallied to 13-year high against the dollar, threatening Japanese exports as world’s second-largest economy tumbles toward recession.

With Tokyo’s Nikkei share average hitting a 26-year low and share of Japan’s biggest banks tumbling on fears that they would have replenish capital, Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said the G7 was worried about volatility in the yen.

7 Japan to take fresh crisis action

By David Dolan, Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 11:43 pm ET

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan pledged fresh measures on Monday to try to shield the world’s second-biggest economy from the global financial crisis and said the Group of Seven would issue a joint statement on the yen.

A flurry of comments from top lawmakers came as investors dumped banking stocks on expectations they need fresh capital to offset losses in their stock portfolios.

The Nikkei average hit a 26-year low just before Prime Minister Taro Aso said the government will expand its bank bailout scheme and strengthen regulations on short-selling of stocks.

8 South Korea cuts rates record amount to tackle crisis

By Cheon Jong-woo, Reuters

1 hr 31 mins ago

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea on Monday delivered its largest ever interest rate cut and pledged more spending and tax cuts next year to help economic growth, already at a four-year low and likely to be hit further by the global financial storm.

But the 75 basis point rate cut to 4.25 percent failed to lift share prices after they dropped their most on record last week on growing fears that the economy, along with company profits, will buckle under the strain of the downturn across world markets.

“What investors really want isn’t just a rate cut but measures to cure a liquidity squeeze,” said Kim Joong-hyun, an analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities. “It is the nervousness in the market that keeps credit tight.”

9 CORRECTED: Asian stocks slide to 4-year low

By Rafael Nam, Reuters

3 mins ago

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Japanese stocks tumbled to 26-year lows on Monday and most other Asian markets fell heavily in chaotic trade as investors feared a flurry of central bank moves would not be enough to stave off a global recession.

Little that officials said could convince panicky investors that governments can stem the fast-spreading crisis that is menacing financial markets, economic growth and company earnings.

The yen continued to gain even after Group of Seven finance ministers on Monday singled out the excessive volatility of the currency, which is battering Japanese share prices.

10 Recession reality setting in slowly

By Emily Kaiser, Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 3:49 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The more than $4 trillion that governments have thrown at the financial crisis pales in comparison with the wealth destroyed in falling stock markets, and conditions may get worse as economic reality sets in.

While there are some encouraging signs that efforts to revive credit markets are beginning to gain traction and lending is slowly resuming, companies are sounding the alarm over the damage already done to their profits.

Japan’s Sony (6758.T) is finding fewer buyers for its cameras and televisions. French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUP.PA) is planning “massive” production cuts as demand fades. Online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN.O) is warning that holiday sales won’t be as strong as expected.

11 Hungary and IMF agree on rescue package

By Lesley Wroughton, Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 9:31 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Hungary has reached agreement with the International Monetary Fund and European Union on a broad economic rescue package, including substantial financing, to stabilize its economy rocked by the global financial crisis, the IMF said on Sunday.

“A substantial financing package in support of these strong policies will be announced when the program is finalized in the next few days,” IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a statement that did not indicate the size of the package.

“Participants will include the IMF, the EU, and some individual European governments, together with regional and other multilateral institutions,” he added.

12 KeyCorp, Capital One to receive cash infusion: source

Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 5:15 am ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – KeyCorp (KEY.N), Zions Bancorp (ZION.O) and Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) are some of the banks that will receive cash under the U.S. government’s second round of capital infusions, a source familiar with the Treasury Department’s thinking said on Sunday.

Four banks, including PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC.N), have already announced they are participating in the second round of capital injections.

Under the government’s $700 billion financial services rescue package, the Treasury Department will inject $250 billion of capital directly into banks in exchange for preferred shares and warrants.

13 Ugly October can’t end soon enough

By Ellis Mnyandu, Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 11:05 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Whichever way this week plays out on Wall Street, the market is likely to close out an October that stock investors would rather forget.

So far this month, the Dow is off 22.8 percent, the S&P 500 is off 24.7 percent and the Nasdaq is down 25.8 percent — putting them on track for their worst month since the October 1987 crash. In the S&P’s case, this October could wind up being its worst month ever in the post-World War Two era.

Bears are expected to tighten their grip on Wall Street this week unless there are reassurances by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks that authorities have what it takes to reduce the blows from the menacing economic downturn.

14 Fed questions counterparties about Citadel: report

Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 12:18 pm ET

CHICAGO (Reuters) – Examiners with the Federal Reserve have questioned Wall Street counterparties about their exposure to debt and other holdings of Citadel Investment Group, The Wall Street Journal said on Saturday.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Journal said the Fed questioned the counterparties in at least two instances in recent days.

Katie Spring, a spokeswoman for Citadel, said Citadel continues to have more than 30 percent of its investment capital in cash.

15 Swiss prosecutors examine UBS conduct: reports

Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 8:43 am ET

ZURICH (Reuters) – Swiss prosecutors are considering opening an investigation into the conduct of the management of UBS AG (UBSN.VX) during the subprime crisis, two newspapers reported on Sunday.

Zurich prosecutor Andreas Ochsenbein told the Sonntag newspaper his office had been in touch with UBS officials.

“There have been a few individual discussions, which, however, were not interrogations, either in form or content,” he was quoted as saying.

16 MUFG may raise up to $10.6 bln in capital: sources

By Taro Fuse, Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 8:44 am ET

TOKYO (Reuters) – Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T), Japan’s largest bank, is considering raising up to 1 trillion yen ($10.6 billion) to replenish its capital, people familiar with the matter said.

Japanese broadcaster NHK reported earlier that Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (8316.T), the country’s No. 2 and No. 3 banks, may also look to raise several hundreds of billions of yen.

Although Japanese banks have been relatively unscathed by the global credit crisis, the plunge in Japanese shares in the past few months is eating away at their capital bases because they hold a large amount of stock in client firms.

17 McCain cautious on auto industry bailout

By Donna Smith, Reuters

Sun Oct 26, 12:29 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Sunday declined to embrace the idea of $15 billion more in government aid for the struggling U.S. automobile industry but did not rule it out.

In an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” McCain was asked about a suggestion by a Michigan economist that the government provide $15 billion cash to help the U.S. auto industry survive the financial crisis.

McCain noted the U.S. Congress recently authorized $25 billion in low-interest loans to help the industry retool to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles.

18 Australian central bank intervenes as dollar falls again

AFP

Sun Oct 26, 10:56 pm ET

SYDNEY (AFP) – Australia’s central bank intervened Monday to prop up the local dollar after it plunged 3.7 percent against the greenback as investors turned it into the whipping boy of the global financial crisis.

The rare intervention by the central bank was aimed at adding liquidity “in an illiquid market”, a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) spokesman said.

The Aussie was trading at 0.6194 to the greenback at midday (0100 GMT), down nearly two US cents from Friday’s domestic close of 0.6388, after hitting a five-year low of 0.6060 in US weekend trade, its weakest since April 15, 2003.

19 Brown “angry” his calls for monitoring of banks were ignored

AFP

Sun Oct 26, 11:16 am ET

LONDON (AFP) – British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Sunday vented his anger that other countries ignored his plan for averting global financial crises.

Brown said he was annoyed that other governments had not agreed to implement cross-border supervision of banks, some 10 years on since he had first argued the case.

Brown, who was Britain’s finance minister for a decade under Tony Blair until June 2007, has won international praise for his swift action plan for dealing with the current worldwide credit crunch.

20 Kuwait scrambles to prop up second biggest bank

by Omar Hasan, AFP

Sun Oct 26, 11:25 am ET

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) – Kuwait on Sunday scrambled to shore up its second biggest bank and launched an economic task force as part of a flurry of measures to counter the growing impact of the global financial crisis.

The problem at Gulf Bank was revealed by the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK), which immediately suspended the company’s shares but said it “backs the bank and fully guarantees its deposits.”

Meanwhile, the government of the oil-rich emirate pledged to guarantee deposits in all local banks as the Kuwait Stock Exchange tumbled yet again, prompting traders to walk out.

21 Spread betting boom as Britons gamble on turbulent markets

by Elodie Mazein, AFP

Sun Oct 26, 1:02 am ET

LONDON, (AFP) – The credit crunch has sparked a surge in spread betting in Britain, as people speculate tax-free on the financial markets rather than sink their capital into turbulent stocks.

With no taxes to pay and no commission charges, spread betting has increased in popularity as nervous investors worry about expanding their portfolios of company shares. If companies do sell shares then it is important to act fast and invest as quickly as possible, for the best chance of a good investment return. You need to look up the prices of different shares and decide what is best for you. If you were investing in a Finnish company, for example, then you would be looking for osakkeen hinta, which is the share prices of their stocks, making sure that whichever company you are investing in that you are ensuring that you have gathered all the information for a successful investment.

Rather than regular betting on a precise outcome, spread betting allows punters to gamble on a range of outcomes, with the accuracy of the wager determining how much is won — or lost.

22 Asia eyes key stake in new global financial system

by P. Parameswaran, AFP

Sun Oct 26, 4:18 am ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Asian leaders will find the first global summit on the current financial turmoil a perfect venue to demand a key stake for the region in any new international financial system, experts say.

As Europe and the United States clash over their leadership role in framing a new international financial architecture at the November 15 meeting in Washington, Asians feel they have much of a stake in the stability of the global system as the industrialized countries, the experts said.

“The big question is how you can restructure the international economic regime in a way that makes countries such as India and China feel that they not only have a stake but also have real influence,” said Eswar Prasad, former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund.

23 KBC bank to seek 3.5 billion euros state aid: reports

AFP

Sat Oct 25, 4:22 pm ET

BRUSSELS (AFP) – Belgian bank KBC, whose shares have fallen heavily recently, is seeking 3.5 billion euros from the state to recapitalise before Monday, media reports said, but a company official denied the bank was in “crisis”.

Several Belgian media outlets reported Saturday that KBC had asked the Belgian government for the 3.5 billion euro (4.4 billion dollars) recapitalisation, with meetings scheduled throughout the weekend to find a solution.

“The government will examine, along with shareholders, what actions, if need be, are necessary so that the bank can respond in an appropriate manner to an exceptional situation on the financial market,” Prime Minister Yves Leterme told Belga news agency.

24 Two German regional banks seek state aid: report

AFP

Sat Oct 25, 2:53 pm ET

BERLIN (AFP) – Two regional German public banks want to call on aid from the government as part of a huge operation to rescue the banking sector, the magazine Der Spiegel claimed Saturday.

It identifies the banks as Duesseldorf-based WestLB and Hamburg-based HSH Nordbank.

“We have to arm the bank against the forthcoming storms,” said WestLB’s head, Heinz Hilgert, who plans to ask its supervisory body next month to use all the help made available as part of the rescue plan.

It is checking in particular whether it needs to ask for direct recapitalisation aid, Der Spiegel said.

25 Belgian PM calls for European emergency fund to aid banks

AFP

Sat Oct 25, 1:15 pm ET

BRUSSELS (AFP) – Belgium’s prime minister Saturday called for the creation of a European emergency fund to recapitalise banks and guarantee loans between them.

In an opinion piece published in Flemish- and French-language newspapers, Prime Minister Yves Leterme said the fund could be used to acquire non-liquid assets.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) could “borrow the necessary means” for the fund, Leterme said, but added that banks that could benefit from them should “contribute” as “a sort of insurance premium.”

26 EU urges more telecoms competition, despite crisis

AFP

Sat Oct 25, 7:11 am ET

BRUSSELS (AFP) – The European Commission Saturday urged greater competition in the union’s telecommunications sector, rejecting calls from operators for a moratorium because of the global financial crisis.

“Some of you … have come to me in the past weeks and told me that now, because of the financial crisis, it would be time to soften or even to abandon telecoms regulation,” Viviane Reding,the EU commissioner responsible for the information society and media, told a conference of operators in Venice.

“First of all, I firmly believe that regulation taking care of competition always has a positive effect on the economy. Times of economic difficulties are thus not a reason to suspend the principles of competition law,” she said according to remarks released in Brussels.

27 China to invest in rail network as stimulus measure: report

AFP

Sat Oct 25, 3:16 am ET

BEIJING (AFP) – China will invest nearly 300 billion dollars in its overburdened rail system as a stimulus measure aimed at blunting the impact of the global financial crisis, state press said on Saturday.

The investment is part of plans to extend the country’s railway network from the current roughly 78,000 miles to nearly 100,000 miles by 2010, Shanghai’s Oriental Morning Post reported.

The Beijing News quoted a rail official as saying that, while the network needed extending, the massive investment of 292 billion dollars was also intended to help lift the nation’s economy as it suffers amid the global woes.

5 comments

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  1. Monday Monday, so good to me,

    Monday Monday, it was all I hoped it would be

    Oh Monday morning, Monday morning couldn’t guarantee

    That Monday evening you would still be here with me.

    Monday Monday, can’t trust that day,

    Monday Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way

    Oh Monday morning, you gave me no warning of what was to be

    Oh Monday Monday, how yould cou leave and not take me.

    Every other day, every other day,

    Every other day of the week is fine, yeah

    But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes

    You can find me cryin’ all of the time

    Monday Monday, so good to me,

    Monday Monday, it was all I hoped it would be

    Oh Monday morning, Monday morning couldn’t guarantee

    That Monday evening you would still be here with me.

    Every other day, every other day,

    Every other day of the week is fine, yeah

    But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes

    You can find me cryin’ all of the time

    Monday Monday, …

  2. Alan Greenspan, who ran the Fed for 18 1/2 years, called it a “once-in-a century credit tsunami,”

    Greenspan’s comment is ridiculous on so many levels.

  3. in a nice Oregon Pinot Noir.

    I think the bottom is in the upper 7000s, maybe 7700, but what do I know?  I picked the Rays in 5.

    • RiaD on October 27, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    i think!

    well, it’s always good to be informed

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