Madam Zelda! Madam Zelda! Is it true this house is haunted?!

A Stars Hollow Gazette

SILENCE!!!  The spirits are about to speak…

You know, I don’t just spend my time railing at our craven capitulationist Congress and their blow dried Beltway butt kissing Bozo court stenographers.  No siree.  I reserve a certain amount of bile for our corporate criminal culture of greed is good conmen and thieves.

When last we looked in the crystal ball, 18 trading days ago, my prediction was grim-

I expect a rally in anticipation of rate reduction from the next Fed meeting.  I expect a rally after they confirm market expectations.

I expect the fundamentals to remain the same.

Look for big Friday sell offs, why be long over the weekend?  What should you do in the mean time?

I feel the spirit of Jim Cramer…

Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Buy at the dips and sell into strength.  This market will not be done dropping until it bottoms out on the intraday lows, 6K to 7K.  For long term investments look at dividends and p/es, if you have the cash and the time.

Scary.

I think that over the next couple of days we’re going to test the market lows.  We might start hitting those 6Ks I talked about.

I’ve heard some gloom and dooming on CNBC about how Dow 4K is ‘the Great Depression all over again’, but I don’t agree that things are that dire yet.  I expect some serious defict spending and it’s all good (some types are better than others of course).

Anyway, at some point earnings and dividends are going to get more attractive than just leaving your money in your mattress.  There will be a bottom.

If you are liquid then you will pick up some bargains in the long run, there is no reason to believe that in 2 or 3 years values won’t approach historic levels.  And by historic I mean historical average growth, not tulip market prices.

Should have bought potato futures.  At least you can eat them.

I don’t pretend economic wisdom, but I see patterns in the data.  I use the DJIA as a broad indicator.  I don’t claim poblano prescience or accuracy, but if you want to see some brightly colored tables join me below.

I’m glad I had the forsight not to publish my ‘Obama Election Bounce’ prediction because it would have made me look foolish.

Here’s how we got here-

Bail Out Boost! 9/26 Friday +121.07 11,143.13
Wall St. snit fit. 9/29 Monday -777.68 10,365.45
Bow to my Bartiromoness. 9/30 Tuesday +485.21 10,850.66
Down, down, down. 10/1 Wednesday -19.59 10,831.07
10/2 Thursday -348.22 10,482.85
10/3 Friday -157.47 10,325.38
10/6 Monday -369.88 9,955.50
10/7 Tuesday -508.39 9,447.11
10/8 Wednesday -189.01 9,258.10
10/9 Thursday -678.91 8,579.19
10/10 Friday -128.00 8,451.19
Big G7, G20 Summit. 10/13 Monday +936.42 9387.61
Oops. 10/14 Tuesday -76.62 9310.99
10/15 Wednesday -733.08 8577.91
Bounce. 10/16 Thursday +401.35 8979.26
10/17 Friday -127.04 8852.22
Bounce. 10/20 Monday +413.21 9265.43
10/21 Tuesday -213.77 9033.66
10/22 Wednesday -514.45 8519.21
Bounce. 10/23 Thursday +172.04 8691.25
10/24 Friday -312.30 8378.75
10/27 Monday -203.18 8,175.77
Irrational exuberance 10/28 Tuesday +889.35 9,065.12
10/29 Wednesday -74.16 8,990.96
10/30 Thursday +189.73 9,180.69
10/31 Friday +144.32 9,325.01
This would be that Obama Rally 11/3 Monday -5.18 9,319.83
11/4 Tuesday +305.45 9,625.28
11/5 Wednesday -486.01 9,139.27
11/6 Thursday -443.48 8,695.79
Who wants to be long? 11/7 Friday +248.02 8,943.81
11/10 Monday -73.27 8,870.54
11/11 Tuesday -176.58 8,693.96
11/12 Wednesday -411.30 8,282.66
11/13 Thursday +552.59 8,835.25
11/14 Friday -337.94 8,497.31
11/17 Monday -223.73 8,273.58
11/18 Tuesday +151.17 8,424.75
11/19 Wednesday -427.47 7,997.28

Way to go all you masters of the universe, all you Galts.

Thanks for nothing.

19 comments

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  1. Previous pieces on the economy-

    • Edger on November 20, 2008 at 03:42

    A compass? Backpack and pup tent? Some rain gear? Fishing line and hooks? A new bowie knife and whetstone?

    And a plastic wrapped copy of the good book?

  2. This economic doom and gloom and–thud–crash has wiped out the Bush increases in the retail price of gasoline. We’re now paying about what we were when he was given the White House.

    I don’t want to think about any portfolios, thankyouverymuch.

  3. On the red days the stock market goes down, but on the green days the stock market goes up!

    Maybe I’ll write my new book about pickin’ stocks.  I was kinda havin’ trouble thinkin’ of ideas.

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