Paragraph 25 of an article in tomorrow’s NYT:
OPEC’s 13 members plan to spend $150 billion to expand their capacity by five million barrels a day by 2012. But OPEC will need to pump 60 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 36 million barrels a day today, to meet the projected growth in demand. Analysts say that without Iran and Iraq – where nearly 30 years of wars and sanctions have crippled oil production – reaching that level will be impossible.
This is why we are not going to leave Iraq. The country that controls the future of Iraq and Iran, controls the world for the next 40 or so years.