Aug 29 2011
I just read an AP article, via Yahoo!– http://news.yahoo.com/irene-fo… — that congratulates NOAA for getting the track of Hurricane Irene exactly right, then points out at length that they got the strength of the storm wrong:
..WASHINGTON (AP) – Hurricane Irene was no mystery to forecasters. They knew where it was going. But what it would do when it got there was another matter.
Predicting a storm’s strength still baffles meteorologists. Every giant step in figuring out the path highlights how little progress they’ve made on another crucial question: How strong?
Irene made landfall Saturday morning at Cape Lookout, N.C. – a bull’s-eye in the field of weather forecasts. It hit where forecasters said it would and followed the track they had been warning about for days.
“People see that and assume we can predict everything,” National Hurricane Center senior forecaster Richard Pasch said.
But when Irene struck, the storm did not stick with the forecast’s predicted major hurricane strength winds.
NOAA probably didn’t get the strength projections wrong at all. Nor they did get it wrong last year or the year before that. They simply had no way to predict or account for my interventions.
Aug 24 2011
I haven’t attempted to meddle with it at all yet, since it managed to avoid hitting Hispanola directly. Perhaps with someone else’s help? I’ve been hoping Irene would just curve around to the northeast, away from the coast. That isn’t looking likely now. It’s projected to hit New York as a Category 3. Not good. There’s an excellent diary about it at GOS, in great detail. So. I guess it’s time to put up or shut up, eh? It usually takes 4 to 6 hours for my “meddling” to bear any fruit. I’m going to meditate now. If any shamans are around, this would be a good time to pitch in. It’s 2:37 a.m. PST. Wish me luck.
Sunday, 1:15 a.m.
I’m done. Given the location of Irene now, over such heavily populated areas, anything I might be able to do to, or with, the storm could easily backfire. For example, stalling it, even inadvertently, could be disastrous. Which is not a result I wish to risk.
At this point, I don’t expect anyone to be convinced I affected the storm. I’M not even 100% convinced.
Thank you all for bearing with me. If you have any suggestions–such as you’d rather I didn’t post any more hurricane diaries because it’s just too far out, or if you have ideas for improving the diaries–I’m listening.
For comparison purposes, the corresponding times are bolded:
Last Wed., 5:00 pm, NOAA:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Yesterday, Sat., 5:00 pm, NOAA:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.2N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
24H 22/1800Z 18.9N 69.3W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 20.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 24/1800Z 22.7N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 25.5N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
Apr 27 2011
I need help and advice. I am more than 50% certain that I can affect the intensity and direction of hurricanes. I believe I have done so, multiple times over a period of three years. And possibly saved thousands of lives.
This is the problem: I do acknowledge that there can be extremely dangerous consequences to “messing with Mother Nature”, and I’m worried that I’ll make a disastrous mistake somewhere along the line. I do have a college degree (computer related), but I’m not a meteorologist. My family knows what I can do–since I’ve documented it, told them what I was going to try to do in advance, then shown them the results–and they’ve convinced me I shouldn’t continue doing this without expert guidance. (Or, possibly, supervision;-)
Sep 05 2009
These are not sins inside the Washington bubble, where they are seen as business as usual by the eternally morally-challenged. But they are the reasons most Americans dislike and distrust politicians. Why? Because they are Destructive and Dishonest and most people understand that. We thought, hoped, that Barak Obama understood that as well. Apparently not.
And the growing exposure of his moral ambiguity is the reason some are now losing faith in Barak Obama. Because he’s committing every one of these “sins”.
First, he packed the White House with un-liberals. Conflicting “leaks” come out of the White House almost daily. He’s spinning on health care. He’s refused to pursue violent and illegal torturers. He’s refused to even investigate out-and-out war criminals from the previous administration. He insists on appeasing openly obstructive Republicans and Blue Dogs. His adminstration was willing to spend billions for Wall Street, and reluctant to support Main Street and Labor. He’s ramping up of the war in Afganistan, despite a dismal outlook for achieving anything useful there. He appointed what can best be described as a “centerist” Supreme Court Justice. He’s openly disdainful of public education. (Despite having never attended a public school in the United States).
We hoped Barak Obama was different. He SAID he was going to be different. He dangled hope for change with the consumate skill of a seasoned huckster or televangelist. (Same difference.)
What some of us worried about before the election, but hardly dared express for fear of being stomped into oblivion, was that he was too inexperienced to stand fast for the people’s needs in the moral sinkhole that is Washington.
Apparently we had reason for our reservations, because Barak Obama seems to be diving headfirst into the muck. He has a choice now. He can pull back from the brink and regain his credibility. Or he can sink.