Hurricane Irene on track for NYC. Closing update.

(10 am. – promoted by ek hornbeck)

I haven’t attempted to meddle with it at all yet, since it managed to avoid hitting Hispanola directly. Perhaps with someone else’s help? I’ve been hoping Irene would just curve around to the northeast, away from the coast. That isn’t looking likely now.  It’s projected to hit New York as a Category 3. Not good. There’s an excellent diary about it at GOS, in great detail. So. I guess it’s time to put up or shut up, eh? It usually takes 4 to 6 hours for my “meddling” to bear any fruit. I’m going to meditate now. If any shamans are around, this would be a good time to pitch in. It’s 2:37 a.m. PST. Wish me luck.

Sunday, 1:15 a.m.

I’m done. Given the location of Irene now, over such heavily populated areas, anything I might be able to do to, or with, the storm could easily backfire. For example, stalling it, even inadvertently, could be disastrous. Which is not a result I wish to risk.

At this point, I don’t expect anyone to be convinced I affected the storm. I’M not even 100% convinced.

Thank you all for bearing with me. If you have any suggestions–such as you’d rather I didn’t post any more hurricane diaries because it’s just too far out, or if you have ideas for improving the diaries–I’m listening.

For comparison purposes, the corresponding times are bolded:

Last Wed., 5:00 pm, NOAA:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 23.1N  74.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

12H  25/0600Z 24.3N  75.8W  110 KT 125 MPH

24H  25/1800Z 26.1N  76.8W  115 KT 135 MPH

36H  26/0600Z 28.2N  77.3W  115 KT 135 MPH

48H  26/1800Z 30.1N  77.3W  110 KT 125 MPH

72H  27/1800Z 34.3N  75.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

96H  28/1800Z 39.5N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

120H  29/1800Z 47.0N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Yesterday, Sat., 5:00 pm, NOAA:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 17.7N  64.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

12H  22/0600Z 18.2N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH…INLAND

24H  22/1800Z 18.9N  69.3W   65 KT  75 MPH…INLAND

36H  23/0600Z 19.6N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH…INLAND

48H  23/1800Z 20.3N  73.5W   50 KT  60 MPH…OVER WATER

72H  24/1800Z 22.7N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

96H  25/1800Z 25.5N  79.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

120H  26/1800Z 28.5N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH…INLAND

 

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  1. By staff, stang, and stone

    Broom, blossom, and bone

    With the fire ‘twixt the Horns strong it burns.

    And as old becomes new, and cloud becomes dew

    The Path snakes, it twists and it turns.

     

    This is either an anti-hurricane spell or a spell that produces an anti-cyclone, and then I guess you need an anti-anti-cyclone spell to quell the anti-cyclone.

     

    • mplo on August 24, 2011 at 9:20 pm

    Unless something happens to downgrade the storm and throw her off course.

  2. to tell.

    If it hits  the hatteras area, it’ll lose a lot strength.

    It’s unlikely to be strong in NY- way to far north anyway, because of the ocean temp.  

  3. this hurricane to intensify and hit land. Anticipating and some even wanting it to. Reporters, especially, and weathermen are all hyped up and excited. What a thrill! I heard a weather reporter say just a while ago: “Irene WILL get stronger.” Exactly that way. He was adamant about it and determined to have it so. Although, in all fairness, I believe he was doing his best to warn beach lingerers and idiots to evacuate.

    Frankly, if I have any juice at all, it’s running counter to a big weight of negative expectations. Which, by the way, is not an excuse, but an observation. No excuses here. And it doesn’t mean I’ve given up.  

  4. Which isn’t enough of a drop, given Irene’s size. (Yoda was wrong. Sometime size does matter!-) Irene needs to be turned east, but is resisting. Still working on it.

    11:15 a.m. PST, 8/26.  

    • TMC on August 27, 2011 at 8:01 pm

    for low lying areas id flooding. Even though the winds have died down, this is still a slow moving massive storm with a storm surge of a Cat 2 that has not changed.

    Areas like NY, Long Island, NJ, CT have been it with very heavy rains in the last couple of weeks, so flooding and downed trees that will cause property damage and power outages are inevitable.

    I’m in an evacuation area but on high ground. I’ve taken all the needed precautions for at least a week without access to the rest of the island.

    Stay safe and off the beaches

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