November 2010 archive

Austerity & The Coming Lost Decade

Rob Johnson is the Director of the Economic Policy Initiative at the Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt Institute and is a regular contributor to the Institute’s blog NewDeal2.0. He serves on the UN Commission of Experts on Finance and International Monetary Reform. Previously, Dr. Johnson was a Managing Director at Soros Fund Management where he managed a global currency, bond and equity portfolio specializing in emerging markets. He was also a Managing Director at the Bankers Trust Company. Dr. Johnson has served as Chief Economist of the US Senate Banking Committee under the leadership of Chairman William Proxmire and was Senior Economist of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee under the leadership of Chairman Pete Domenici. Dr. Johnson was an Executive Producer of Taxi to the Dark Side, an Oscar Winning documentary produced and directed by Alex Gibney.

Here, Johnson talks with Paul Jay of The Real News Network about the economic fallout from the past couple of years and the 2010 mid term elections, and concludes that…

…the baseline scenario now is one of prolonged stagnation, gridlock in the government, unless Obama essentially capitulates to the agenda of the right. But will we go into a deep downturn similar to 2007, ’08, early 2009? Not necessarily. We may just remain stagnant. Perhaps the best model is the so-called lost decade in Japan, where you have negligible growth, negligible inflation, or even modest deflation, and you just kind of bump along the bottom. The danger of that, as I alluded to previously, is the long-term, persistent unemployment allows the skills of many people in society to atrophy. And the United States, unlike Europe and Japan, does not have a strong safety net, so it probably foments more social unrest, kind of like what we saw in the formation of the protest movements and Tea Party as we approach this election.



Real News Network – November 04, 2010

Austerity Could Lead to Lost Decade

Rob Johnson: They could accelerate foreign policy conflict to direct attention outwards

..transcript follows..

Meeting Candidate Obama, Three Years Later

I met Barack Obama in September of 2007.  Before I go any further, I need to qualify that I wasn’t granted much more than a handshake.  Still, at the time I remember being quite excited at the prospect.  The venue was the Georgia World Congress Center in Atlanta and as one of several volunteers I was assigned specifically to crowd control.  A large gathering of people being correctly corralled and directed into the room where the event would be held, I settled in like everyone else to enjoy the presentation.  After a lengthy number of speakers that came before Obama, most notably the R&B singer Usher, the candidate himself finally appeared.  Unsurprisingly, he was as good as advertised and I found myself nodding along with every point he made.  Oprah had but recently endorsed him, though he was still very much in a distant second place to Hillary Clinton.

Rashomon: Was Obama the Gate or the Gateway?

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Rashomon:(the south entrance gate to Kyoto) no longer exists.  It fell into decay and suffered and crumbled under the ebb and flow of many civil wars centuries ago.  But I’ve been to where it was:  now just a stone marker in a small playground, about a 5-10 minute walk from Toji Temple.  

“Rashomon” was also a film by Director Akira Kurosawa.  

I discuss the “Rashomon Effect” below.

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 I used to litigate.  No more.  I still keep a hand in “traditional” law with Will drafting, contract matters, employment policy drafting and consultation, etc., but I focus more and more on international business matching and related work.

 I say all that (in the preceding paragraph) to say, well, I used to litigate (I’m thinking this comment may just get turned into an essay).  And in litigation one quickly learns the practical side of what everybody instinctively knows about the Rashomon Effect:  people can see and experience virtually the same thing and, yet, see and experience very different things!

 This is why we have trials:  two witnesses to a car accident standing next to one another and both looking at the light at the same time.  One swears it was yellow and the other swears it was read.  The outcome of the thing depends on who the jury thinks is more credible.  Neither is lying; they both believe they’re telling the utter truth. So we have to (for example, through cross examination) test their respective perceptions.

 While there were and are as many varied viewpoints of Barack Obama, among those who viewed him favorably, who supported his candidacy in the fall of 2008, I see two general views that emerged (I actually saw this back then and diaried to some degree or another several times on this over at orange; I feel that my conclusions then have been confirmed countless times since then, right up to today):

  1. The Gateway.  He is a vehicle through which desired changes will come.  A conduit by and through which reforms will be made.  He is bright and capable and should be given (it was right, perhaps, to have given him) a shot at effectuating real, substantive progressive changes in government, economic priorities, and even to the American zeitgeist.  He has the brains, the background, the skills needed and the motivation to bring about the desired (by progressives, Democrats) systemic changes.

  2.  The Gate.  He himself is a person to be followed and implicitly trusted and believed in.  Whatever setbacks or (perceived) failings that may occur along the way would be (are, have been) owing either (a) to other people failing him and/or failing to have faith in him; or, (b) a misperception among critics and cynics that he has failed, when, in fact, nothing he does falls short of the mark and that his wisdom and vision should not be questioned; that he “gets” the Big Picture in a way and to a depth that his detractors cannot begin to understand (how can an ant in Alabama understand how the Taj Mahal was constructed?).

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 Well, need I go further?  

 I was there in Mile High Stadium in Denver when he gave his acceptance speech.  I got choked up many times over, not so much in listening to Barack Obama, but in seeing the tens of thousands of people who believed that he would usher in a new and better day for the United States.  Little did I really, really “get” that I was not seeing a unified body (except unified in the desire and determination to get him elected).  I was seeing people who, individual variations notwithstanding, who either believed he was an agent for change, or that he was The One.

 The light was Yellow, no, the light was Red!


                             

With my camera pointed at the People, not the Podium.

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Were they looking at a Gateway, or a Gate?

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Letter to Sen. Durbin. Dear Dick,

Dear Dick,

As you may remember, when last I wrote – I told you I would keep you informed of my sacrifices.  This is, of course, in the spirit of your exhortation to me to make such sacrifices as an American.  As a teaching moment, on Halloween, I gave the working class kids in this area one (I repeat one) piece of candy, and not the 2 or 3 I sometimes bountifully passed out in past years.  After all, these are mostly working class kids and in the future they will be the ones called to the sacrificial altar again and again.  You will agree that Halloween is a good time to begin the lessons of austerity. I couldn’t bring myself to buy the cheapest candy but as you know, some of us must ease ourselves into the spirit of austerity.  Next year I will do better.

To that end, duly noted that most of the candy is made in America.  Surely we can do something about that.  Frankly, I am surprised.  Why have these jobs not been outsourced?  And I don’t mean Belgian chocolate for instance.  LOL.  What is this  –Kenilworth?  (I presume the children of Kenilworth, Illinois are exempt from the call for sacrifices as their parents’ median income is $237,7l7.  It was $200,000 in 2000 – so they are doing something right unlike my own suburb.)

Yes, they were disappointed.  Their little faces lit up when I opened the door soon darkened.  They will learn, of course.  

Also, accept my condolences for your recent loss.  As the leading Democrat here, you must feel quite down.  I did not vote for a Democratic Senator because look here, I take your call to sacrifice seriously.  How could I not vote for the Green candidate who spent $5,000 in campaigning.  His name is Lealan Jones.  It is shorter than the Democratic candidate which is appropos.  And he knows how to scale down.  Unfortunately, the 3 or 4% he garnered seemed to be a factor in the Democrat’s loss.  Ah well, austerity has consequences!  LOL.

As a Chicago winter is approaching, there will be many occasions for sacrifices.  The heat will be turned as low as possible without harming my critters.  I can wear several layers of clothing and go to bed early.  Better for me actually – I won’t watch TV – I’ll read – am currently reading Thorstein Veblen’s The Theory of the Leisure Class. You don’t want too many of your constitutents to read this book btw (LOL).  However, you must consider that long, cold winters are just the right setting for this kind of reading.  I love that he is Norwegian – I am Norwegian and have been to Norway.  They know how to live thru cold weather there for sure.  Though I think the state coddles them.  (LOL)

You may also remember that I asked you to list your and your family’s sacrifices on your webpage.  Where is it?  I haven’t seen it.  I saw the many requests for donations and your sterling list of accomplishments but not the sacrificial list.  Please consider informing your constituents of your own efforts here.

Docudharma Times Thursday November 4




Thursday’s Headlines:

Clara Barton’s D.C. home and office may be converted into museum

USA

Richard Wolffe: Democrat doom may turn to delight as Tea Party politics kick in

Republicans Face a Fundamental Choice in How to Oppose

Europe

BBC apologises to Bob Geldof over Band Aid claims

Sarkozy had ‘surveillance unit spy on journalists’

Middle East

After Baghdad bombings, Iraqis have harsh words for security forces

Asia

Six years later, army to pull out of Timor

The war to come in Myanmar

Africa

The ‘Gap kids’ you won’t see in the adverts

Is the Case Against Charles Taylor Falling Apart?

Spending blitz by outside groups helped secure big GOP wins

Hedge fund moguls helped bankroll groups’ attack ads, sources tell NBC News

By Michael Isikoff and Rich Gardella

NBC News


A tightly coordinated effort by outside Republican groups, spearheaded by Karl Rove and fueled by tens of millions of dollars in contributions from Wall Street hedge fund moguls and other wealthy donors, helped secure big GOP midterm victories Tuesday, according to campaign spending figures and Republican fundraising insiders.

Leading the GOP spending pack was a pair of groups – American Crossroads and its affiliate, Crossroads GPS – both of which were co-founded by two former aides in the George W. Bush White House: Rove, and Ed Gillespie.

Muse in the Morning

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Muse in the Morning

Time for a break from poetry…in order to create some art.

And who can doubt that it will lead to the worst disorders when minds created free by God are compelled to submit slavishly to an outside will?   When we are told to deny our senses and subject them to the will of others?

–Galileo Galilei



Colorful 2

Late Night Karaoke

Mortgage Bankers Get Another Bailout….$600 Billion

(Cross-posted from my place The Free Speech Zone)

Lower long-term interest rates in theory should ripple through the markets, affecting other rates, like those of 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. That could encourage homeowners to refinance into cheaper mortgages, though it would not help the millions of Americans facing foreclosure.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11…

Analysis below…

Seeking Momcat

Hello Friends,

   Sorry for the lack of contact for the last severaL months, and the short diary, and calling her out, but it is really, really important that I get in contact with Momcat. I would be grateful to anyone who can put us in touch. My email is chacounne at gmail dot com

                With gratitude,

                    Hugs,

                   Heather

This Dog Can’t Hunt & Can’t Learn New Tricks

Woke up, rolled out of bed, a little groggy in my head from watching all those election returns.  I splashed some water on my face, went to my computer and turned it on, and shook my head in dismay when I saw my home page blazing the brain-dead headline:

Obama signals willingness to compromise

He didn’t notice that the lights had changed, and though it’s really very sad, I couldn’t help feeling indeed quite mad because I knew this would continue the whole world going bad:

WASHINGTON – A chastened President Barack Obama signaled a willingness to compromise with Republicans on tax cuts and energy policy Wednesday, one day after his party lost control of the House and suffered deep Senate losses in midterm elections.

Obama ruefully called the Republican victories “a shellacking.”

Continue trying to turn him on below the fold…

Primary Him.

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Obama Signals Willingness to Compromise.

                                                                          Primary the SOB.

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I’m done, totally done, with him.  

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Free



Freedom is free.

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