Predictions re BP and the Gulf

(10 am. – promoted by ek hornbeck)

I’m going to hazard a few predictions here. I hope I’m wrong. If I am you can crucify me later.

Neither BP nor anyone else has any workable idea how to stop the leak. If they did it would have been stopped by now.

The leak will continue to flow into the ocean for the foreseeable future, until the reservoir pressure drops to lower than the pressure of the weight of the ocean pressing down on it. At some point perhaps the seabed will collapse into an emptying reservoir and there will be seabed earthquakes. And maybe tsunamis.

BP will not be “shoved aside”. The government will not take over the management of the disaster response. Neither BP nor any of its management will face any substantive sanctions or criminal charges for this. Nor will BP be “debarred” from government contracts by the EPA.

For a very simple and obvious reason.

The government has the largest military in the world to supply and operate, and the government has two military occupations in progress to run.

BP has been one of the biggest suppliers of fuel to the Pentagon in recent years, with much of its oil going to U.S. military operations in the Mideast. (It sold $2.2 billion in oil to the Pentagon last year, making it No. 1 among all the oil companies in sales to the military, according to the latest figures from the Defense Energy Support Center.)

The government is going to do everything they can possibly do to keep BP alive and healthy, to keep their largest supplier of fuel to the military operating profitably and supplying that fuel.

Ken Salazar spouting his “”We will keep our boot on their neck until the job gets done” line to the media is PR to keep the peasants from burning down the castle, and is probably the only way he has of avoiding being made the scapegoat and saving himself.

Sorry about the Gulf of Mexico, folks. It’s being sacrificed for the (heave) greater good.


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    • Edger on May 25, 2010 at 1:15 am

    My mouse is hovering over the “publish” button at orange to crosspost this…

  1. The military has a quasi-sacrosanct status where if a reporter questions anything about the massive resources “the beast” needs they quickly become Ashleigh Banfield, remember her?

  2. The US will quickly turn most of itself, and most of the rest of the world, into a putrid, festering, toxic, radioactive waste-dump.  And bomb the shit out of any survivors.

    While true Americans, from their perma-green cull de sacs,  worry about the final episode of “Lost” and peel their skin cancers at night.  

  3. …. brightly covered disposable coverall suits and rubber gloves.

    Oh, and plastic bags. Lots of plastic bags.  

  4. The seafloor will undergo major, catastrophic changes; and the govmint will do whatever it takes, whatever it costs, to keep it’s military dominance well fueled.

    For what is happening to the seafloor, see:


    and here

    and here


    UPDATE 5:45pm CDT [5/23]: A brand new MAJOR eruption is happening. tune into the SpillCam at . It’s black, all you can see is a cable. It started with yet another GUSH plume/tornado.

    Oh, dear– now, we can see that that is a LOT of oil– and a BLIZZARD of Hydrates..

    UPDATE 6:03pm CDT: The current eruption is way, way worse than the several that occured earlier. I think this might be a “Main Event” situation.

    UPDATE 6:45pm CDT: An hour after the start of this most recent eruption, and it is still just a wall of oil, methane crystals, and gack.

    WAY, WAAAY worse than the first event.

    UPDATE 7:35pmCDT: Live feed of recent blowout froze-up, requiring a reload of page. All of a sudden– no more black chaos– just the current clear-water gusher view. I suspect loop tape, but I have the screen grabs from the entire day, below.

    If there is another delay in the “Top-Kill/Junk Shot,” you’ll know why.

    Grab of the last moment before feed cut-out, below. You can dimly make out the lights of the lighting rig, lower center of pic image (click for BIG):

    UPDATE 8:15pm CDT: Top-Kill Delayed. Imagine my surprise.

    UPDATE 11:51pmCDT: Another major eruption. These are not coming from the riser. They are coming in to view from elsewhere, even in the long-view shots. Sometimes from behind the ROV. Twenty-four hours of near non-stop SpillCam viewing, and not one look at the BOP.


  5. and things will get worse because of it.

  6. These madmen are playing with the base of the food chain that also happens to produce over 50% of the earth’s atmospheric oxygen. I read somewhere that already there are over 400 dead zones in the earth’s oceans. This is now starting to get seriously bad. I think the red light is going off. Throw in buried, leaking radioactive waste and greenhouse gasses and we might even be heading towards code blue.

    How we can allow imaginary, artificial, mythodollar psychotic obsession control our minds and our lives is just plain madness. We truly are in the Twilight Zone.


    • banger on May 25, 2010 at 11:11 pm

    I think there’s a lot of pressure building on the Administration to “do something” so some bones have to be tossed to the dogs–what bones I don’t know. It will be interesting to watch–there is an election coming up and something has to be done that make the Democrats look good because the Republicans will see this as Obama’s Katrina even though they don’t care about the Gulf anything much except getting high and getting laid (hey I actually knew some Republican operatives back in the 80’s and yes, that’s what they liked to do).  

  7. embedded in the seafloor near the well has a good chance of closing the hole.

    The blast forces generated would shift the various layers of earth laterallty. Each layer would shift a different rate depending upon the make-up and composition of the layer.

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