Dow 6000

Well, entirely possible.

I had thought the market overpriced by 20% at 10,831.07 (DJI close one week ago, 10/1/08) but maybe I’m not gloomy enough.  Ian Welsh at Firedog Lake makes a convincing case that you should be looking for 7:1 p/e which he calculates as Dow 6000 and that may be where we are heading.

In Europe they are nationalizing banks and frankly it’s a more cost effective strategy than buying the 40 x leveraged paper.  The Brits just committed 250b pounds ($500b) and that’s a chunk of money.

Expect the US market to rise delusionally because this is all good for John McCain.


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  1. 8200.  So I’m thinking this is probably where we’re headed no matter what.  If all of the governmentall shenanigans don’t work, 6000 and lower is quite possible.

    • Robyn on October 8, 2008 at 2:52 pm

    They know I am old.  They just wanted to let me know that my CREF has lost $23,273.16 in value the last quarter and $43,004.35 since the beginning of the year.

    I split my funds 50/50 between the annuity and the stock because that was the default and I had no reason to ever change it.  Right now it’s just about a wash between them over the years since 1984.

  2. I can get 80% off on the price of the Wall Street Journal.

    Why would I be interested in a dead institution?

  3. Photobucket

  4. DJIA closed at 9248.  Why do I have the impression that this is going into the 8800’s tomorrow?  Or is that unreasonably polyanna and unrealistically optimistic?  

  5. My nomination for “Song of the 2008 Crash.”

  6. the banks makes more sense to me then the opposite which is privitizing the treasury. Why in the hell can’t they at least reinstall Glass-Seagall and get these vultures out of the regular banking system. When most of us use a bank we aren’t investing in the casino of selling bad debts to the gamblers and funny money dudes. Privitization at it’s worst where we all are gamblers now.  

  7. . . . and has been for some time, but 6000 may be right.  I just fly by the seat of my pants, and set the Dow clock back 12 years or so, before deregulation, the dot-com bubble, and all the Bush regime shenanigans.

    • RUKind on October 9, 2008 at 8:31 am

    I moved half my 401K to cash when the Dow got skittish at 14000. Not that it matters. The coming hyper-inflation will make our dollars worthless. I see GD II followed by WW III. It’s a proven recovery method.

    We need to come down on Obama like a collective, galactic shit-hammer after the inauguration. The truth had to come out about this scam. And don’t doubt for a second that this isn’t more than one gigantic scam to separate three generations from the fruit of their labor.


  8. One of the reasons the U.S. markets may be doing so badly is because the Republicans who are heavily invested there know the jig is up so they’re pulling their money faster than rats can flee a sinking ship.

    The only silver lining may be that the markets and financial crisis will hit bottom before Bush leaves office. Leaving, Obama will have no place to go but up. I keeping my fingers crossed.

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