Feb 14 2008
(Alternate title: Ratings and Relevance – Why the Media Elite Need Hillary to Stay in the Race)
Like many of you, I am fascinated by our Elite Media’s collective reaction to the Obama surge. They appear to be tripping over themselves to minimize the importance of his victories this week. They are muddling the delegate count to make it appear like we have a neck-and-neck horse race, rather than an obvious clear leader today. Tim Russert has to stand on his head wearing those 3-D colored glasses in order not to sound like a complete idiot when he says ‘As I read the results, there is no clear picture in the race today, Chris’. Matthews, Andrea Mitchell, and the rest are all saying how uncertain things are, when in fact we have a darn good idea of what is happening.
So what’s going on here? Aren’t these the same people who couldn’t wait to trash Hillary Clinton from the moment she announced her candidacy? Weren’t these folks practically wetting themselves when it looked like she had a legitimate challenger in the Democratic primary? Yet now, you get the sense they are all cheering her on behind the scenes, although of course they can’t be so blatant as to say so on national TV.
Feb 08 2008
Numbers tell the story.
I work with numbers all day long. Numbers tell you the truth about what’s going on, if you can manage to be neutral when evaluating them. People – in all our marvelously complicated screwed-up glory – make the world go around. But numbers are how you make sense of it all.
I’ve been reading mostly lately, not commenting or writing my little stories. But the discussion here the last couple of days about defeating evil Republicans vs. how the Democrats are ‘worse than evil’ for enabling evil — well it gets the juices flowing.
I believe in nuance, in all sorts of shades of grey, yet I also believe there is an objective truth to many if not most issues. This contradiction fuels my life in many ways. But I believe complex issues can be explained through detailed analysis and empirical review. Science for lack of a better term.
So — you want some numbers that I think will help decipher our modern day political code? Six (plus one) are humbly presented below. A warning in advance, I’m avoiding links on purpose for narrative purposes. Google is our friend.
Dec 18 2007
A candidate diary at Docudharma? Oh Noes!
Not really, just one man’s opinion. Just to get it down somewhere kinda official looking. So without further ado…
Realistically, only three can win the nomination.
Clinton, Obama, and maybe if the stars align Edwards.
Dec 03 2007
Senator Webb’s appearance on Meet the Press was much better than he is given credit for here. Rather than paraphrase what he said, I would like to explore further what he actually said on the issues.
I’ll quote and add some thoughts from the actual transcript of the show.
Hopefully, we can agree to disagree with Senator Webb while appreciating his clarity and understanding of the issues.
Nov 30 2007
If someone would be so kind, I have some questions I would like answered.
I must leave for the evening, so I will check back in the morning to see if anyone responds.
FWIW, the questions are important to me this evening, and relate to larger questions rattling around my noggin’.
Nov 28 2007
I just received a Ron Paul flyer in the mail. In this particular piece of merde, Dr. Paul is arguing against illegal immigration. He believes he is the one candidate running who will stop it once and for all.
Part of his strategy is to amend the 14th amendment in the Constitution and end automatic birthright citizenship in the United States.
My initial and immediate reaction was…
Fuckity fuck fuck piece of shit racist bastard. What an asshole you are for pulling this shit, especially in the South where it is too damn easy as it is to appeal to the deep-seated racism here. Fuck off.
And then I thought of the fight going on here yesterday, and I see continuing somewhat today. And I thought it worth bringing to your attention.
Nov 21 2007
Well, this is interesting.
From today’s Washington Post:
And despite widespread impressions that Obama is banking on unreliable first-time voters, Clinton depends on them heavily as well: About half of her supporters said they have never attended a caucus. Forty-three percent of Obama’s backers and 24 percent of Edwards’s would be first-time caucus-goers. Previous attendance is one of the strongest indicators of who will vote.
I note with amusement that the same Anne E. Kornblut who got it so so wrong in my previous diary today is coauthor of the piece quoted above.
Nov 21 2007
Your humble blogger was going to write a post about ‘second choices’ in the Primary race and how perhaps Edwards isn’t out of the running quite yet given he is likely the second choice of many primary voters.
Looking for the truth from prior years’ election cycles, there was evidence supporting this theory from the Republican side in 1999, with George W. Bush being the second choice of most primary voters that time around (bastages).
But then, I found an article written by Anne Kornblut for the Globe last cycle and said ‘screw it’.
Really, there is no way to predict this thing.
Nov 19 2007
In baseball, the objective truth is the best managers only allow your team to win three or four more games a year – out of a total of 162 games played during the regular season.
The athletes on the field are the ones who determine the outcome of the game. After all, there are only so many times you can pull the old ‘double switch’ to your advantage in nine innings.
If your pitchers are on their game, and your hitters do a good job of keeping their eye on the ball, you’ll have a good chance of winning on any given day.
Nov 12 2007
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.
Back in early 1995, President Clinton had a problem. He needed to nominate a new Surgeon General and the Democrats did not control the Senate. However, the Republicans only had a slim 53 seat majority so the President felt he had a fighting chance to get his nominee through.
If he chose wisely…
Nov 06 2007
Some selected quotes (by far the easiest form of blogging known to mankind, it’s been a busy day) from the article below the fold…
Nov 02 2007
First off, lay off the Al Gore bashing, if you would be so kind. Sure, the guy would most likely be the best President of the whole Current crop. But he’s paid his dues. He’s already run the gauntlet many times in his life. Don’t forget he lost to a Clinton once before in a primary. He knows what he’s up against. If he chooses not to run, he’s earned some peace. Let’s not ruin it for the guy.
That said, there’s a very good chance we’ll end up with another President Clinton Elect pretty much exactly one year from — right now. Oh yes, it’s certainly possible she’ll be beat, either in the primary or the general. But today, she’s the odds-on favorite. And (unfortunately) sometimes the favorite actually wins.
Just ask the Boston Red Sox.