# Flow Rate Technical Group ups the Ante for BP

( – promoted by buhdydharma )

Hot off the Presses …

Scoop: Gulf well may be gushing 25,000 to 30,000 barrels

By Joel Achenbach, washingtonpost.com — June 10, 2010; 4:00 PM ET

Just filed to the web some new figures we obtained this afternoon from the federal government that suggest the Deepwater Horizon well is gushing more oil than previously estimated.

The Flow Rate Technical Group has about five subgroups, and the one that is looking at the video of the leak, the so-called plume team,

has come up with an estimate of 20,000 to 40,000 barrels a day,

with the most likely range being 25,000 to 30,000 barrels.

The team had earlier estimated the flow at 12,000 to 25,000 barrels.

Study: Well most likely spewing more than 1M gallons of oil a day

By Joel Achenbach, Juliet Eilperin and David Fahrenthold

Washington Post Staff Writer

Thursday, June 10, 2010; 4:32 PM

If the team’s estimate is correct, and the flow has been more or less consistent,

approximately 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels,

or 53.6 million to 64.3 million gallons,

of oil have emerged from the well since the April 20 blowout.

That is roughly five to six times the amount spilled in Alaskan waters in 1989 by the Exxon Valdez.

I knew it!  So did a lot of us.

The Flow Rate Technical Group has

come up with an estimate of 20,000 to 40,000 barrels a day,

with the most likely range being 25,000 to 30,000 barrels.

What is that “in Gallons per day”?

since there are 42 Gallons per Barrel

the new Estimate, from Low to High estimates:

20,000 x 42 =   840,000  Gallons per day

40,000 x 42 = 1,680,000  Gallons per day

with a most likely range of:

25,000 x 42 = 1,050,000  Gallons per day

30,000 x 42 = 1,260,000  Gallons per day

How about an everyday benchmark for those Million Gallons?

How many Gallons of gas does a tanker truck hold?

SO How many 9,000-Gallon, “gasoline tanker trucks” are spouting from BP’s Gusher each day?

since there are 42 Gallons per Barrel

the new Estimate, from Low to High estimates:

840,000  / 9,000 =  93   Gas Tanker Trucks per day

1,680,000  / 9,000 = 187  Gas Tanker Trucks per day

with a most likely range of:

1,050,000  / 9,000 = 117  Gas Tanker Trucks per day

1,260,000  / 9,000 = 140  Gas Tanker Trucks per day

Yeah BUT What about the Oil that’s being recovered each day, now?

Coast Guard Toughens Oversight of BP’s Effort

By HENRY FOUNTAIN and CLIFFORD KRAUSS, NYTimes — June 9, 2010

BP said it captured about 15,000 barrels of oil on Tuesday, which it has said is about the daily limit that its collection ship, the Discoverer Enterprise, can process.

So, assuming the reported Recovery Rate 15,000 barrels per day is accurate,

15,000 x 42 = 630,000   Gallons per day

convert to Tankers

630,000 / 9,000 = 70  Gas Tanker Trucks per day being Recovered

SO updating those “Gas Tanker Truck” Benchmarks

the new Estimate, from Low to High estimates:

93  – 70 =  23      Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

187 – 70 = 117     Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

with a most likely range of:

117 – 70 = 47      Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

140 – 70 = 70      Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

[BTW, that last line is actually a 50% Recovery rateWoo Hoo!.]

That’s much better than a few weeks ago — BUT It’s STILL a LOT of Tanker Trucks, spilling their fuel, each and every day.

I sincerely hope they figure out how to capture that remaining flow (47-70 Trucks per day), very soon.

Whatever the ACTUAL Amount of Damage, finally turns out to be, when all is said and done.

Afterall “5 to 6 Exxon Valdez’s” are really WAY TOO much, already.

For more fun with Math and Benchmarks, see my recent posts:

How BIG is 12 Thousand Barrels, anyways?

by jamess — Tue Jun 01, 2010

UPDATED: Some of the Oil is being Captured, and SOME, of it is NOT

by jamess — Sat Jun 05, 2010

the floor is yours …

• jamess on June 10, 2010 at 23:47
Author

those scientists are fighting back.

1. this section:

SO updating those “Gas Tanker Truck” Benchmarks

the new Estimate, from Low to High estimates:

93  – 70 =  23      Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

187 – 70 = 117     Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

with a most likely range of:

117 – 70 = 47      Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

140 – 70 = 70      Gas Tanker Trucks per day (after Recovery)

2. by an ‘estimated’ 20%–maybe much much more.

And, note that the recovered oil they’re now getting from the top hat, is an oil / water mix–they report it as all oil, but it’s not by a long shot.

3. …. more oil sucking, gathering, and processing equipment and ships, they are going to be sucking, gathering, and processing more oil and gas than they previously admitted was coming forth from the well.

This is known as an “oops.”

They can’t brag about sucking 30,000 barrels of oil a day if the thing only officially leaks 15,000.

Prediction:  The Flow Rate Team is going to declare they need a bigger Maxi Tanker soon, one with wings.

I believe Translator snarked this up as magickal on BP’s part-  making oil out of seawater.