(9 am. – promoted by ek hornbeck)
The Dog has talked about the downward spiral of the Republican party but until yesterday it was all based on gut feeling and perceptions of their actions filtered through a lifetime of political thinking and work. Now Gallup has come out with some data which confirms not just that the Gopasaurs are in trouble but that they are in trouble in every single demographic!
You can find the whole thing here, be sure to go and look for yourself! Gallup does not like you poaching their graphs (go figure? They spend all that time and effort then they want you to credit them!) so I won’t post them. They looked at 7000 people, which is a pretty big survey sample size, so this is going to be very accurate. The 7000 people either self identity as Republicans or lean that way, and were compared to a similar sample taken in 2001. In the last eight years the change is shocking
It is kind of common wisdom that men are more of the Republican base than women, but for whatever reason they are not losing women as fast as they are men.
Just look a those numbers! Even in the South the Republicans are losing members. During the 2008 cycle the Dog was one of those who advocated abandoning the South, it looks like it is a good thing the Dog wasn’t listened to on that one. The nearly 10% loss in the Midwest is a huge blow, especially with the 2010 census and redistricting coming up.
College Graduates -10%
Non-College Grads -3%
It is pretty clear the GOP war on expertise and knowledge has turned off the College Graduates in huge numbers. This is particularly damaging long term for the Republicans as you have to have educated well spoken people as a candidate pool. If all you have to run is Joe the Plumber know-nothings you are going to get your ass handed to you at the ballot box on a regular basis.
Frequent Church Goers 0%
Occasional Church -6%
Never Church -9%
This set of numbers confirms what we have been seeing, namely that the hard core religious Right is sticking fast with the Republicans. As the size of the Party shrinks their influence proportionally grows. This is the really bad news for the GOP. It is the intolerant language that the Religious Right uses which is in part responsible for the shrinking of the Party. This is a set up for a classic vicious cycle as there are less and less moderating voices in the Republican Party and the hard core gains more and more power to enforce ideological purity.
The Dog wondered in this dairy who would win control of the Republican Party, the business interests or the social conservatives. These numbers tend to indicate it will be the Religious Right that takes leadership of the party. If that is the case then things for the next three or four cycles will really favor the Democratic Party.
All in all there is a lot of trouble in River City for the Republicans. There are going to be those who will say that we should not count them out and point to where the Democrats were in 1994 or even 2001 but the fact of the matter is we were never in this bad a shape. We had close majorities in Congress and for six of those years we held the White House. Is it too early to say the Republican Party is going to die? Probably, but it is not too early to say it is very grave peril of becoming irrelevant.
The floor is yours.