Ronzo Gave Star Wars Speech 25 Years Ago Sunday

( – promoted by buhdydharma )

Twenty-five years ago tomorrow, before a television audience, President Ronald Reagan initiated one of the grandest defense boondoggles of all time, the Strategic Defense Initiative. Like many boondoggles, it was couched in sweet talk and lies:

The defense policy of the United States is based on a simple premise: The United States does not start fights. We will never be an aggressor. We maintain our strength in order to deter and defend against aggression — to preserve freedom and peace. …

What if free people could live secure in the knowledge that their security did not rest upon the threat of instant U.S. retaliation to deter a Soviet attack, that we could intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our own soil or that of our allies?

I know this is a formidable, technical task, one that may not be accomplished before the end of the century. Yet, current technology has attained a level of sophistication where it’s reasonable for us to begin this effort. It will take years, probably decades of efforts on many fronts. There will be failures and setbacks, just as there will be successes and breakthroughs. And as we proceed, we must remain constant in preserving the nuclear deterrent and maintaining a solid capability for flexible response. But isn’t it worth every investment necessary to free the world from the threat of nuclear war? We know it is.

Those lines and the rest of the speech sure sounded good to many. As had been the case almost since the arrival of Werner von Braun and the other V-2 rocket engineers at the end of World War II, when it came to space, America talked peace and prepared for war. After sputnik went beeping around the planet every 96 minutes in 1957, the effort was greatly intensified, always with the threat of Soviet attack as the rationale. This was true whether it was JFK campaigning about a bogus “missile gap” or a 1980s Pentagon inflating Moscow’s military power at the urging of the Committee on the Present Danger’s nascent neo-conservatives. Reagan’s speech was nothing new on that score.

In fact, U.S. talk about putting weapons onto the ultimate high ground of outer space started well before President Reagan gave his Star Wars speech. In 1947, German Major General Walter Dornberger, who had headed the Nazi rocket program, began officially advising the U.S. Air Force. Like any good Nazi, he recommended putting nuclear bombs into orbit to attack Soviet cities and military installations. He also proposed a space-based defense against missiles, an orbiting ring of hundreds of satellites, sentries armed with small rockets capable of destroying enemy ICBMs.

Some of Dornberger’s proposals reached the prototype stage in the early 1960s. But, after a few atomic tests in space, the idea of nuclear bombs permanently dangling overhead scared both sides so much that such weapons were banned by the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. Technical, financial and political problems grounded the orbiting anti-ballistic missile concept, and the ABM Treaty of 1972 seemed to seal its fate forever. But Dornberger’s concept of satellite sentries survived to become the model for the SDI system that retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Daniel O. Graham, a former deputy director of the CIA, began pushing before Reagan’s speech.

But, while the Commitee on the Present Danger and groups like the Heritage Foundation and Graham’s High Frontier were ecstatic over the prospect of taking out Soviet ICBMs with an orbiting “shield” of laser weapons backed up by missiles and other sea-, air- and ground-based weapons, many scientists and arms control experts were appalled.

While building a defensive umbrella over the United States appeared appealing to the uninitiated, for those in the know, it presented the likelihood not only of an expensive new arms race but also the very real possibility that instead of protecting Americans (and possibly their European allies) against a nuclear slaughter, it would spur one. Building and switching on such a system, critics said, would smash the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction. And that would not be a good thing, as Reagan’s speech implied, but a very bad thing.

Why? Because a broad range of experts believed – and still believe – that it’s impossible for a missile shield to nail all or even most thousands of warheads from incoming ballistic missiles. Unless, that is, the United States used that shield to launch a first strike. Such an attack might catch 90% or 95% of Soviet missiles before they could be fired. Only a comparative few would be left for the missile shield to knock down with lasers, interceptor missiles and other weapons, an achievable task. Perhaps only a handful of Soviet missiles would get through to take out, say, Seattle, Denver, and Baltimore. Meanwhile, the USSR would lie in ruins. Some might call that a Pyrrhic victory, but not the CPD neo-cons.

Many in the Soviet High Command at the time believed, in fact, that the system – soon derisively called “Star Wars” by critics in the U.S. media – had the express purpose of backing up a first strike. Perceiving the system as unworkable for defensive purposes (and easily overcome in that mode by decoys and other relatively cheap technology) but perfect for aggression, some Soviet strategists argued that the only way to deal with such a system would be to attack it before it became operational. And that would lead to the long-feared exchange of 6000 or more warheads that some scientists were at the time saying could bring on a “nuclear winter.”

By eliminating the possibility of an effective retaliation, a missile shield of the sort Reagan and his experts proposed would trash Mutual Assured Destruction, which, by reason of its diabolical essence, had kept the peace for more than two decades (although there had been some close calls). Instead of making the world safer, the missile shield would destabilize a wary stand-off.

But, surely, as Reagan said at the time, “The United States does not start fights. We will never be an aggressor.” In fact, some members of the Committee on the Present Danger argued that the U.S. should strike the Soviet Union and get done with a war they expected would eventually happen anyway.  

While the theorists argued over the strategic prospects of a missile shield, some experts challenged the technical aspects. None suggested that it would be impossible to shoot down a few dozen Soviet ICBMs or SLBMs with a full-blown system of defense. Developments since have borne them out. Although the testing regime of the various incarnations of Missile Defense Agency since 1983 has been less than a rigorous reflection of the real world, knocking down a single missile or a handful of missiles coming at the United States in a surprise attack is no doubt doable. The interceptors are probably approaching reliability, and the Airborne Laser holds considerable promise.

And, as noted by William J. Broad, The New York Times‘s resident expert on Star Wars from the beginning, reported last September:

Space weapons are “still definitely part of the program,” said Philip E. Coyle III, a former director of weapon testing at the Pentagon. “But they don’t emphasize it because the arms-control people come out of the woodwork.”

But, in the aftermath of Reagan’s speech, many experts who believed that the shield was meant to be a defensive umbrella capable of taking out a few thousand Soviet missiles rising from silos, submarine tubes and mobile launchers scattered around the globe said it couldn’t be done. Couldn’t be done no matter how exotic the weapons. And they were exotic. Although the ground- and sea-based portions of the plan were predicated on significant guidance-system upgrades of existing missiles and anti-missiles, the space-based stuff was, well, out there. Some hawks still have hopes for them.

One proposal was to put thousands of chemical lasers into orbit. When rising missiles were detected, the orbiting weapons would lock onto their targets and pierce the thin skin of Soviet booster rockets, exploding the fuel and preventing the warheads from reaching their intended destinations.

Only a few dozen problems with that idea. For instance, getting hundreds of laser-firing satellites into orbit would take far more space launches than the U.S. had done altogether in 25 years, and keeping them cocked-and-ready with fluorine or other fuels would take annual lifting capability equal to that usually associated with a major seaport. Moreover, the system would require a couple of million lines of computer code that could never be fully debugged in a realistic environment.

Even if these weapons could be orbited and fueled, and the code could be tested, they could be easily destroyed by much cheaper, simpler, smaller enemy satellites manufactured in abundance.

There were also other ideas for the orbiting portion of the shield. Kinetic rail-guns firing projectiles at Mach 5, a 4000-satellite array that would shoot melon-sized “brilliant pebbles,” and “rods from God.” The last was a first-strike weapon that would drop tungsten rods at the speed of a meteor to penetrate the earth with the power of a nuke, but without radioactive fall-out.

Perhaps the most infernal of the proposed weapons was promoted by Edward Teller, the demon genius who once argued that the media should not discuss lethal Soviet nuclear disasters because this would turn Americans off to the idea of expanding commercial nuclear power.

It was Teller’s misleading views on the potential of the X-ray laser that first roused Reagan’s passionate interest in Star Wars. The idea was straightforward enough. Put into orbit nuclear weapons – which would require opting out of the Outer Space Treaty. Faced with an attack, the United States would set off the nukes to generate multiple beams of radiation to demolish incoming missiles. Teller claimed that a single, desk-sized laser could strike as many as 100,000 targets all at once, something other scientists said grotesquely overstated the case.

Be that as it may, however many X-ray beams would emerge from however many satellites, they would have to be generated simultaneously because the nuclear explosions would destroy the electronics of other satellites, including satellites the military depended on for command, control and communication. Indeed, one way an enemy might wreck the ability to use orbiting weapons would be to set off a handful of nuclear explosions in space ahead of time.

One selling point of the Strategic Defense Initiative was that innovations would generate new commercial products far more lucrative than Tang and Teflon. A key proponent of this was James Ionson, who, in 1985, was an up-and-coming, 32-year-old astrophysicist. He once said he had an “ego the size of the moon.” Seeing the flow of Star Wars cash, Ionson persuaded James Abrahamson, who was the first Air Force general in charge of SDI, to set up, and put him in charge of, the Innovative Science and Technology program. IST became the basic SDI research arm, passing along more than $100 million annually of its huge budget to university research facilities and high-tech companies to look into gamma-ray lasers, superconductivity, strong-but-lightweight materials and other risky, expensive endeavors. Ionson was also in charge of commercial spin-offs of SDI innovations.

The glowing reports from IST persuaded many SDI advocates that, even if no missile shield were ever built, the spending involved would create technological advances making for a prosperous American future. This at a time when Reagan had gutted research into renewable energy. According to New Scientist, one corporation, Business Communications Company of Stamford, Conn., claimed in 1986 that SDI technology spin-offs could reach $20 trillion, or $38 trillion in 2008 dollars.

In 1988, Ionson took leave of IST and set up JDC Enterprises to buy the emerging SDI technologies and sell them to corporate customers for a handsome profit. Ionson said, “In some cases, these technologies are so close to the commercial marketplace, the people who have invented them don’t even realize it. You can get a quick turnaround on your investment.”

Three years later, unable to find any customers, Ionson left to work for Polaroid and JDC closed its doors.

As for Star Wars itself, despite Teller’s claims and the claims of High Frontier’s General Graham in 1986 that “off-the-shelf” technology was available to fast-track a missile shield that would be operational in 1996, and the spending of at least 150 billion inflation-adjusted dollars, the plan to bring an end to the threat of annihilation by nuclear weapons remains elusive.

But the Cheney-Bush administration has made great headway in spending more money than previous presidents on the project, and managed to extract the United States from the 30-year-old ABM Treaty that previously stood in the way of Star Wars deployment.

 

13 comments

Skip to comment form

  1. I’m cross-posting my comment that I made to MB’s essay on dKos and then expanding upon it.

    One of my favorite rebuttals from the Reagan-era SDI came from software engineer, David Lorge Parnas. Parnas wrote from his experience with battle management software. He believed any SDI system would not be trustworthy because the software needed for such a system could not be made reliable.

    His article, Software Aspects of Strategic Defense Systems, published in the Communications of the ACM in December 1985 concluded:

    My conclusions are not based on political or policy judgments. Unlike many other academic critics of the SDI effort, I have not, in the past, objected to defense efforts or defense-sponsored research. I have been deeply involved in such research and have consulted on defense projects. My conclusions are based on more than 20 years of research on software engineering, including more than 8 years of work on real-time software used in military aircraft. They are based on familiarity with both operation military software and computer science research. My conclusions are based on characteristics peculiar to this particular effort, not objections to weapons development in general.

    I am publishing the papers that accompanied my letter of resignation so that interested people can understand why computer scientists believe that systems of the sort being considered by the SDIO cannot be built…

    Simply put, we cannot build the software needed for it to be reliable. If I’d had to give an opinion, I’d suspect the problems today remain the same problems that Parnas and company faced in the early 1980s. In the 30 years, software engineering practices still not good enough and therefore the software built for SDI still will not reliable enough to trust.

    What can be done with software has grown dramatically since 1985. This is, in part, due to the faster processors and more storage capacity that is available today, and also that we’ve had over 20 years to built upon.

    But, still software is buggy and fraught with problems and each day we’re becoming more reliant on software in life-or-death situations. I believe Parnas was right in 1985 and I believe his essay holds true today. If we can destroy the world n times over, are we any safer if rather than 100 nukes hit our cities just 1 nuke hits?

    Wouldn’t the smart terrorist or ‘enemy’ nation that wants to nuke the U.S. find a non-missile way to strike? Say a container ship in NYC or LA?

    • OPOL on March 23, 2008 at 2:55 pm

    as we do building weapons of mass destruction (oh my!) we could co opt the boogeyman.

    “The best way to destroy an enemy is to make him a friend.” – Abraham Lincoln

    • justice on March 23, 2008 at 4:37 pm

    I do believe Cheney was around with Ronzo, and probably did think 30 years into the future as to what he would do to enable that “defense”.  The first thing, eliminate the ABM.

    Because I am sure they know that the technology is darn near impossible, this “defense” and the deadly mistakes made when the weapons are released improperly are the perfect tool for all out war.  Make a mistake?  Oh sorry, we’ll just let the whole thing go.

    The “Terminator” series was not all that far off.

    BTW, how do we ensure that when Cheney leaves office he doesn’t have that magic key with him?

    Excellent post, as always MB.  I so appreciate you.

  2. go to prison.

    Steal big, go in to the history books as a hero.

  3. that so many americans admire a president with evident alzhimers?!?…….

    I believe all of this is really just a ploy to militarize space as the next battle ground……

    when we went to the moon we made an agreement with the world that space would be accessable to all….

    no more….

    now the military sees space as the ultimate high ground….

    this is why china is heavy into developing its space program and putting a person on the moon……

    they know that from space we peer down on all horizons…..

    • kj on March 23, 2008 at 5:57 pm

    the talks among friends of my husband’s about whether or not to take jobs with the boondoggle… at the time, no young, idealist scientist would dream of adding such muck to their newly minted phds. despite the lure of what was, at the time, good money after years of ramon noodles.

    • documel on March 23, 2008 at 6:09 pm

    The US is ringing Russia with missiles to antagonize them.  Without a reliable enemy, how can the military-industrial complex be assured of so much tax money.  Homeland Security’s budget isn’t big enough for these bastards, but they’ve been following Joe McCarthy’s script for a long time–with very slight modifications.  

    “All we are saying is give peace a chance.”

  4. rhymes with Gonzo!

    Destroyed not by nukes but by deliberately exported economy.

    • RUKind on March 24, 2008 at 4:40 am

    That’d be the RONALD Raygun. I wrote about this back shortly after the speech was originally given. It was a one sheet pamphlet (think dead-tree blog post) I put together on an Apple II (bleeding edge tech) and a dot-matrix printer (9×5 no less). (And my modem was 300 Baud; couldn’t afford a 1200.) It was all snark a generation before there was snark.

    So now it’s a generation later and my UWXGA (1920×1200) 17″ LCD wireless laptop (more powerful by far than the Cray X-MP of ’83) and a high speed internet connection is my tool of choice to take advantage of the latest iteration of SGML and the IP protocol to LOUDLY proclaim – WTF!

    It’s 2008 and this hare-brained boondoggle still doesn’t work. We’ve unilaterally scrapped or backed out of all treaties that were made in good faith a generation ago to keep this shit from happening. And the dumb-ass sumbitch Repugs just keep pounding on it over and over.

    Some shit just never changes! I’m 59 and I’m watching fucking re-runs of reality! This shit was absurd the first time and it’s still absurd and we’re still pushing it!

    Brilliant Pebbles! Try Petrified Dingleberries! Same old neo-cons that got their start under Nixon just keep coming back up like a bad clam.

    And here’s another re-run folks: 1972, the forces of HHH (see DLC 2008) do their best to strangle the progressive candidate (see George McGovern). We win the Dem nomination and all I got was the right to put a “Don’t Blame Me I’m From MA” bumper sticker on my shitbox vehicles that got me through the worst and longest recession since WW II. We got four more years of Nixon, an impeachment for what wouldn’t even raise an eyebrow these days and the continuation of a totally immoral war for no reason whatever.

    Like Ziggy Marley sings,“Don’t know your past don’t know your future.” I hope you all know how to garden.

Comments have been disabled.