GOP Pollster: All Over But The Crying?

Frank Luntz has been a GOP pollster for years. For anyone who isn’t familiar with his name, wikipedia describes him as “an American corporate and political consultant and pollster who has worked extensively in shaping talking points and political strategy for Republican candidates. Some of his most recent work has been with the Fox News Channel running focus groups after presidential debates.”

PBS Now with Bill Moyers describes Luntz this way:

Dr. Frank Luntz was named by TIME as one of “50 of America’s most promising leaders aged 40 and under” and he is the “hottest pollster” in America according to the BOSTON GLOBE. Luntz was the winner of the coveted Washington Post “Crystal Ball” award for being the most accurate pundit in 1992. The “Instant Response” focus group technique Frank has pioneered was profiled on 60 MINUTES in 1998.

Luntz has written, supervised, and conducted more than a thousand surveys and focus groups for corporate and public affairs clients in 11 countries since forming The Luntz Research Companies in 1992. In the 2000 election cycle, Luntz conducted almost two-dozen focus groups for MSNBC and CNBC, including live sessions following each night of both party conventions and presidential debates. His reoccurring segments on MSNBC/CNBC, “100 Days, 1000 Voices” won an Emmy Award in 2001. He was a primary night and election night commentator for THE NEWS WITH BRIAN WILLIAMS on MSNBC in 2000 and continue[d] those duties for HARDBALL in 2004.

Love or hate him, if any pundit or pollster claims a good handle on what will happen in Tuesdays election, none are more experienced or better qualified to know what they are talking about than Luntz.

In a RawStory article today Luntz is quoted as saying:

“I cannot foresee a scenario that John McCain is elected the President of the United States”

The RawStory article also includes an audio file of Luntz in a short interview with the BBC:


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    • Edger on November 3, 2008 at 02:59

    will be less of a nail biter, now?

  1. I was thinking that Colorado would be the make-or-break state, which potentially would mean a late night.

    Right now my guess would be that we’ll know alot when the networks call Virginia. Polls there close at 7 pm Eastern.

    Right now has Virginia 50 for Obama and 44 McCain  

  2. If Obama didn’t carry a single other Bush state (but he will), Virginia would get him to 277, added to all the rock-solid Gore-and/or-Kerry states (264 electoral votes in those).  Colorado, Nevada, (probably) Ohio, and (possibly) Florida will be icing on our cake.

    If Virginia somehow fails to go blue (but Obama has been leading there by a polling consensus of 8 points for weeks), Obama can still get to 270 through Colorado or Ohio or Florida or even Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina.  There are lots of different ways for Obama to do it, and only one of them has to come true (though several of them probably will).  That’s why Republican pollsters who know what they’re talking about are a bit dispirited these days!  

    • RUKind on November 3, 2008 at 09:12

    There’s a malignancy that’s been nurtured by the dog-whistle messages. I pray it goes into remission and recovery. We’ve got a huge hole to climb out of here. The previous owners are emptying the till 24/7. They’re leaving us with nothing. We’ll have to build from scratch after clearing away the wreckage. This whole nation is one big NOLA/Galveston.

    It’s time to begin again.

    • Edger on November 3, 2008 at 09:41

    Obama is ahead of McCain by 11 points at 53% to 42%, and…

    Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

    And from RawStory again:

    Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer of New York told CBS on Sunday morning that the Democrats will do well on Tuesday, but might not achieve a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority.

    “I think we are going to have a pretty good night,” Schumer said. “If you would have told me a year ago that we’d be where we are now, I’d be very surprised…The bottom line is, I think, Wednesday morning, Democrats are going to be very happy because we’re going to pick up a whole lot of seats. As for 60, that’s very, very difficult. It’s possible, but unlikely.”

    “Of the 11 contested states,” he went on, “none are deeply blue–a whole bunch are deeply red–so, even though the wind is at our back, it’s hard.

    • kj on November 3, 2008 at 13:40

    state of Misery Missouri, please do us proud.

    • kj on November 3, 2008 at 14:18

    election night returns should be a fun night this time.

    fingers crossed, spit twice over the left shoulder, turn around three times and stomp one foot

    • kj on November 3, 2008 at 14:38

    reading a NYTimes story

    In the last days on the trail, he is finishing “Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the C.I.A., Afghanistan and Bin Laden,” and taking an occasional glance at US Weekly. He reads at least two newspapers a day, vigilantly checks his BlackBerry for updates on early voting tallies and browses briefing books.

    okay, i just want to say that i tried to read that book.  i tried, really, really, really hard to read that book.  my brain was/is simply too puny to grasp the details and names and fuck all else, i might as well have tried to read a book on physics.  yet, this is what Obama is reading in the final days of this long campaign?   shit, you know, i’d be doing good to be reading comic books.


    • Edger on November 3, 2008 at 17:58

    Rove appeared on Fox News Monday morning to share his pre-Election Day predictions. His state-by-state model showed Barack Obama taking at least 310 electoral college votes on Tuesday, far more than he needs for victory.

    “If McCain hopes to win, he has to win all of the [toss-up] states … then that’s not enough,” Rove said. “He has to do some takeaway, and the two biggest takeaways are Ohio and Virginia and if he does that he wins the election.”

    Obama currently leads in polls in both those states.

    Confronted with the stark news that his favored candidate has virtually no chance to win, Fox & Friends host Steve Doocy pulled the morning anchor equivalent of sticking his fingers in his ears and singing, “la-la-la-la I can’t hear you.”

    This video is from Fox’s Fox & Friends, broadcast November 3, 2008.

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