Congressional races round 2: New York

continuing through the alphabet

NY has 29 representatives: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans (5 of whom are on the DCCC list

Filing deadline is July 17, primary is Sept 9

District: NY-01

Location Eastern Long Island

Representative Tim Bishop (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 2,000 votes out of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2004, William Manger raised $1.3 million to Bishop’s $1.9 million; in 2006, Italo Zinzi raised $300K to Bishop’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Lee Zeldin

Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K),

Assessment Safe

District: NY-02

Location Central Long Island

Representative  Steve Israel (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th highest income (median = $71K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-03

Location More of central Long Island, especially the south shore

Representative Peter King (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Notes on opponents In 2004, Blair Mathies raised $200K to King’s $500K; in 2006, David Meijas raised $900K to King’s $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)

Assessment On the DCCC list , but we need a candidate!

District: NY-04

Location Western part of southern Long Island (i.e. close to NYC)

Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, James Garner raised $300K to McCarthy’s $1.7 million.  In 2006, Martin Blessinger raised $100K to McCarthy’s $1.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-05

Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens

Representative Gary Ackerman (D)

First elected  1983

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-28

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-06

Location Southeastern part of Queens, NYC

Representative Gregory Meeks (D)

First elected 1998  

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-07

Location Some of Queens, some of Bronx, NYC

Representative Joseph Crowley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%),  28th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian), 27th most Democratic (tie with NY08)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-08

Location West side of Manhattan, part of lower Manhattan, southern Brooklyn

Representative Jerrold Nadler (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 85-14

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Notes on opponents In 2004, Peter Hort raised $140K to Nadler’s $850K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian)

Assessment Safe.  

District: NY-09

Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Anthony Weiner (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-10

Location A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Edolphus Towns (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 92-6  (! and his opponent was a Republican!)

2004 margin 91-7 (!)

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared, although there is a primary challenger

Demographics 27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic

Assessment You’re kidding, right? He might lose a primary, though

District: NY-11

Location Central Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Yvette Clarke (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 90-8

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-12

Location Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn (this one won a ‘contest’ for most convoluted map of a district)

Representative Nydia Velazquez (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 90-10

2004 margin 86-14

Bush margin 2004 19-80

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-13

Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Vito Fosella (R)

First elected  1997

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2004, Frank Barbaro raised $400K to Fosella’s $1.1 million; in 2006, Stephen Harrison raised $100K to Fosella’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Steve Harrison , who ran in 2006; Domenic Recchia.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the 34th most vulnerable Republican seat.  We can win this one!

District: NY-14

Location East side of Manhattan, and western Queens

Representative  Carolyn  Maloney (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 24-74

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th fewest veterans (6.0%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-15

Location Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens

Representative Charles Rangel (D)

First elected 1970

2006 margin 94-6 (! against a Republican)

2004 margin 91-7

Bush margin 2004 9-90

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-16

Location South Bronx, NYC

Representative Jose Serrano (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 95-5 (!)

2004 margin 95-5 (!)

Bush margin 2004 10-89

Notes on opponents The same guy ran twice, with no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Lowest income in the USA (median = $19K), most in poverty (42.2%), 2nd fewest veterans (3.9%), fewest Whites (2.9%), 45th most Blacks (30.3%), 15th most Latinos (62.8%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-17

Location Northern  Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson

Representative Elliot Engel (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 76-24

2004 margin 76-22

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 44th most Blacks (30.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-18

Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC)

Representative Nita Lowey (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents Richard Hoffman ran in 2004 and 2006, and raised less than $100K each time; Lowey raised about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th highest income (median = $69K).

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-19

Location Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT

Representative  John Hall (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hall ousted Sue Kelly, with $1.6 million to her $2.5 million

Current opponents Kieran Lalor

Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 15th most vulnerable Democratic seat.  However, Lalor looks like a nut job, so if there’s no better opponent….Several people have rule out running, see the WIKI

District: NY-20

Location Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gillibrand ousted John Sweeney, raising $2.5 million to his $3.5 million

Current opponents Sandy Treadwell, Richard Wager, John Wallace, Michael Rocque, possibly John Sweeney

Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 8th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NY-21

Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there

Representative  Michael McNulty (D) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 72-20

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents The Democrat is Tracey Brooks ; no declared Republican

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 41st most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the other hand, if no Republicans run, it’s safe

District: NY-22

Location If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west

Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  George Phillips, Bruce Layman

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-23

Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT

Representative John McHugh (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Johnson raised $160K to McHugh’s $750K

Current opponents Mike Oot

Demographics  8th most rural (65.3%),

Assessment Long shot

District: NY-24

Location Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario

Representative Michael Arcuri (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat; Arcuri raised $2 million and his opponent $1.5 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 38th most vulnerable Democratic seat. Of course, with no opponent, it’s safe

District: NY-25

Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse

Representative  Jim Walsh (R) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin Unopposed by Democrats

Bush margin 2004 48-50

Notes on opponents In 2006, Dan Maffei raised $900K to $1.8 million for Walsh

Current opponents Dan Maffei is the Democrat, no announced Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Highly vulnerable.  On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the second most vulnerable Republican seat. And, if no one runs….it’s a gimmee!

District: NY-26

Location Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie

Representative  Tom Reynolds retiring

First elected  1998

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Notes on opponents Jack Davis ran in 2004 and 2006. In 2006, he raised $2.4 million to Reynolds’ $5 million; in 2004, $1.4 million to $2.5 million

Current opponents Democrats: Jon Powers

Alice Kryzan .  Reynolds just announced his retirement, and Davis is considering running again, as well

Demographics 55th most Whites (92.3%)

Assessment On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 27th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NY-27

Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo

Representative Brian Higgins (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 79-21

2004 margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Higgins beat Nancy Naples, each raising about $1.5 million.  In 2006, Michael McHale raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list .  But, again, no opponent, so….

District: NY-28

Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip

Representative Louise Slaughter (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-29

Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA

Representative Randy Kuhl (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 51-41

Bush margin 2004 56-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Eric Massa raised about $1.5 million, as did Kuhl

Current opponents Eric Massa

Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this as the 14th most vulnerable Republican seat