Congressional races round 2: Massachusetts and Michigan

Massachusetts has 10 representatives: All Democrats

Filing deadline is June 3, primary is Sept 16

Michigan has 15 representatives: 9 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline is May 13, primary is Aug 5

earlier entries in this series are here

District: MA-01

Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west.  Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT

Representative John Olver

First elected  1991

2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 35-63

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: MA-02

Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford

Representative Richard Neal (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MA-03

Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI

Representative Jim McGovern (D)

First elected 1996

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, Ron Crews raised $150K to McGovern’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Todd Williams

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MA-04

Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston

Representative Barney Frank (D)

First elected  1980

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)

Bush margin 2004 33-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Chuck Morse

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook

Assessment Safe

District: MA-05

Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence

Representative Niki Tsongas (D)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents No declared opponents

Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: MA-06

Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester.

Representative John Tierny (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised about $50K

Current opponents Rick Barton, who lost in 2006

Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-07

Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston

Representative Edward Markey (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 74-22

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents Chase, in 2004, raised about $62K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-08

Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea

Representative Michael Capuano (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 19-79

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-09

Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton

Representative  Stephen Lynch (D)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Jack Robinson raised $138K to Lynch’s $850K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-10

Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis

Representative Bill Delahunt (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 64-29

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jeffrey Beatty raised $100K to Delahunt’s $1 million; in 2004, Michael Jones raised $260K to Delahunt $840K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-01

Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part.  

Representative Bart Stupak (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 52-45

Notes on opponents neither recent opponent raised money

Current opponents Tom Casperson

Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Fairly safe

District: MI-01

Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan

Representative Pete Hoekstra (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Kimon Kotos ran both times, and did not raise money

Current opponents :

Fred Johnson

Scott Killips

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-03

Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids

Representative Vernon Ehlers (R)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-04

Location Central MI

Representative Dave Camp (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-38

2004 margin 64-38

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Mike Huckleberry ran both time, and did not raise much – between $50K and $100K

Current opponents Andrew Concannon

Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-05

Location Flint and suburbs

Representative  Dale Kildee (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, Myrah Kirkwood raised $250K to Kildee’s $600K.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Bill Kelly

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-06

Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan

Representative Frederick Upton (R)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 61-38

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, Kim Clark raised $150K to Upton’s $1 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: MI-07

Location Central part of souther MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek

Representative Tim Walberg (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin  50-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents Sharon Renier got 46% while raising only $55K

Current opponents Mark Schauer

Jim Berryman

Possibly Renier again

Demographics 68th most rural (46%)

Assessment Vulnerable.   Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Republican seat, and most vulnerable one that isn’t open.

District: MI-08

Location Lansing and surrounding area

Representative Mike Rogers (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin 61-37

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Marinowski raised $500 K to Rogers’ almost $2 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Long shot

District: MI-09

Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit

Representative Joe Knollenberg (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 58-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Nancy Skinner raised $400K to Knollenberg’s $3 million

Current opponents Gary Peters

and Rhonda Ross

Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable; superribbie (link above) calls this the 23rd most vulnerable Republican seat; Peters looks to be running a strong campaign

District: MI-10

Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron

Representative Candice Miller (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-31

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment long shot

District: MI-11

Location Far western suburbs of Detroit

Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 57-41

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tony Truppiano raised $130K to McCotter’s $900K

Current opponents Spencer ,

Edward Kriewall

Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this as the 56th most vulnerable Republican district

District: MI-12

Location Northern suburbs of Detroit

Representative Sander Levin (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-13

Location Detroit

Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 78-18

Bush margin 2004 19-81

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MI-14

Location Detroit

Representative John Conyers (D)

First elected  1964

2006 margin 85-15

2004 margin 84-16

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment

District: MI-15

Location Southern suburbs of Detroit

Representative John Dingell (D)

First elected  1955 (longest serving House member)

2006 margin 88% against minor parties

2004 margin 71-27

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

2 comments

    • plf515 on March 10, 2008 at 12:08 pm
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    tips, comments, recommends

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