Congressional races round 2: Indiana, Iowa, Kansas

Here’s part seven of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are   here

Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Filing deadline was Feb 22, primary is May 6

Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Filing deadline is March 14, primary is June 3

Kansas has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Filing deadline is June 10, primary is August 5

District: IN-01

Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles

Representative Peter Visclosky (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 70-27

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Mark Leyva, who lost in 2004 and 2006

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IN-02

Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo

Representative Joe Donnelly (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Donnelly ousted Chocola while spending less than half what he spent (Donelly – $1.5 million, Chocola $3.4)

Current opponents Luke Puckett or Tony Zinkle

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not completely safe, but Chocola was harder to beat than either of the challengers Superribbie ranks this as 23rd most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: IN-03

Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne

Representative Mark Souder (R)

First elected 1994

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents In 2006, Souder actually got outspent – both spent about $700K, but Thomas Hayhurst spent a little more

Current opponents Michael Montagno

Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI

Assessment Gotta be a long shot, but Superribbie ranks it as 68th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: IN-04

Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis

Representative Steve Buyer (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 69-28

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, David Sanders spent $133K to Buyer’s $500K

Current opponents Nels Anderson

Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment long shot

District: IN-05

Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis

Representative Dan Burton (R)

First elected 1982

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Notes on opponents Katherine Carr, the opponent both times, raised very little money

Current opponents Chester Kelsey and Mary Etta Ruley

Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most conservative per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: IN-06

Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH

Representative Mike Pence (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Barry Welsh

Demographics 41st fewest Latinos

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable Superribbie ranks him the 79th most vulnerable Republican

District: IN-07

Location Indianapolis and suburbs

Representative None (Julia Carson died in office) special election will be Andre Carson (D) vs. Jonathan Elrod (R)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents see above

Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)

Assessment Quite vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 37th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 91

District: IN-08

Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville

Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Notes on opponents Ellsworth ousted Hostetler, and also out-raised him – $1.7 million to $580K

Current opponents Greg Goode or Paul Abramson

Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 27th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 95

District: IN-09

Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington

Representative Baron Hill (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Hill ousted Mike Sodrel on his second try, raising $1.9 million to Sodrel’s $2.7 million

Current opponents Sodrel is running, as is Aaron Hawkins

Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment One of the most vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 110

District: IA-01

Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL

Representative Bruce Braley (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents This was an open seat, Braley and the Republican each had about $2.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)

Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a vulnerability of 86 (45th most vul Democrat) but Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent.  Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.

District: IA-02

Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids

Representative Dave Loebsack (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Loebsack ousted Jim Leach, in a race where each spent about $500 K

Current opponents Lee Harder (per WIKI, but perhaps others)

Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this one a 94, but Harder does not appear to be a serious threat.

District: IA-03

Location Central IA, including Des Moines

Representative Leonard Boswell (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 55-45

Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)

Notes on opponents In 2006, Boswell and Lamberti each raised about $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this a 94; Boswell has had only one comfortable win (in 2000).  If Lamberti runs, this may be competitive

District: IA-04

Location Northern central IA, including Ames.

Representative Tom Latham (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 61-39

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Selden Spencer raised about $500K to Latham’s $1.1 million.  The 2004 opponent raised less

Current opponents William Myers

Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this a vulnerability of 95; in national elections IA-04 has been very close. But Latham has won reasonably easily.  I don’t know much about Myers

District: IA-05

Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs

Representative Steve King (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-36

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Joyce Schulte ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $70K each time

Current opponents :

Rob Hubler

and

Bob Chambers

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-01

Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO

Representative Jerry Moran (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 71-20

2004 margin 91-9 (vs. a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 72-26

Notes on opponents John Doll, in 2006, raised about $60K

Current opponents  James Bordonaro (no site)

Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-02

Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka

Representative Nancy Boyda (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents Boyda ousted Jim Ryun, while spending $300K less than he did ($700K to $1 million)

Current opponents Jim Ryun and Lynn Jenkins

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable.  Superribbie ranks this the 3rd most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 112.  If Ryun wins the primary, it’s probably not too vulnerable, but Jenkins has a good shot

District: KS-03

Location Kansas City and suburbs

Representative Dennis Moore (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-34

2004 margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, Chuck Ahner raised $400K to Moore’s $1.8 million; in 2004, Kris Kobach raised $1.2 million to Moore’s $2.4 million

Current opponents Joel Balam, Nick Jordan and possibly Chuck Ahner and Paul Showem

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Superribbie gives KS-03 a 88 (42nd most vulnerable Democrat).  Moore had several close races before 2004.

District: KS-04

Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita

Representative Todd Tiahrt (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 66-31

Bush margin 2004 64-34

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Donald Betts

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races, and Betts, a state senator, is his first serious opponent.  Could be interesting

2 comments

    • kj on March 3, 2008 at 1:30 am

    these, pfl.  nice to check into old districts.

  1. Thanks for compiling it all and putting it in one place.

    The “Bush margin 2004” numbers in these three states make for mostly depressing reading, even if it’s retrospective depression now.  I’m sure we’ll do better than that this time!

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