Congressional races round 2: Illinois

Here’s part five of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Illinois has 19 representatives, 10 Democrats and 9 Republicans.  The filing deadline was way back in November, and the primary a couple weeks ago, so this is it

District: IL-01

Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs

Representative Bobby Rush (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 85-15

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents neither raised money

Current opponents Antoine Members (no site)

Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: IL-02

Location South side of Chicago and suburbs

Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)

First elected  1995

2006 margin 85-12

2004 margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 16-84

Notes on opponents Neither had money

Current opponents  None

Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)

Assessment Uncontested

District: IL-03

Location Southwestern Chicago

Representative Dan Lipinski (D)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents Neither had money

Current opponents Michael Hawkins

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IL-04

Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that’s saying something!) this one…looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle.  It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side.

Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 86-14

2004 margin 84-12

Bush margin 2004 21-79

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Ann Melichar, who lost in 2006

Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)

Assessment  Safe

District: IL-05

Location North side of Chicago,  from the lake west to O’Hare

Representative Rahm Emanuel (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither had money

Current opponents Kevin White (who lost in 2006)

Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-06

Location Western suburbs of Chicago

Representative Peter Roskam (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents Tammy Duckworth made a race of this, raising $4.5 million to Roskam’s $3.3 million

Current opponents Jill Morgenthaler

Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)

Assessment Probably safe, Morgenthaler does not look close to Duckworth

District: IL-07

Location Chicago’s Loop and nearby

Representative Danny Davis (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 87-13

2004 margin 86-14

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents Neither had money, Davis has never had a close race

Current opponents Robert Dallas

Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate – $40K)

Assessment safe

District: IL-08

Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg

Representative Melissa Bean (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-44 (remainder “moderate” party)

2004 margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was a hugely expensive race, with Bean spending over $4 million and David McSweeney over $5 million.  In 2004, Bean and Crane each spent about $1.5 million

Current opponents Steve Greenberg

Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)

Assessment Possibly another close one, although Bean has now won two tough races.

District: IL-09

Location Northern suburbs of Chicago

Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 32-68

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Michael Younan

Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-10

Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan

Representative Mark Kirk (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2006, Dan Seals raised almost $2 millon to Kirk’s $3.5 million

Current opponents Dan Seals

Demographics 9th highest income (median = $72K)

Assessment Should be another humdinger!

District: IL-11

Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL

Representative Jerry Weller (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, John Pavich raised $600K to Weller’s $2 million; in 2004, Tari Renner raised $300K to Weller’s $1.8 million

Current opponents Debbie Halvorsen

Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks

Assessment Unclear

District: IL-12

Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis

Representative Jerry Costello (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Tim Richardson

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: IL-13

Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago

Representative Judy Bigert (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Joseph Shannon raised $225K to Bigert’s $1 million

Current opponents Scott Harper

Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)

Assessment Long shot

District: IL-14

Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL

Representative  None.  Hastert (R) resigned

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents   Bill Foster on the Democratic side, Jim Oberweis on the Republican side

Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment  A new poll shows Foster with a small lead

District: IL-15

Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign

Representative Tim Johnson (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 61-39

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents David Gill ran both times; in 2006, he raised $230K to Johnson’s $500K

Current opponents Steve Cox (no site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: IL-16

Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford

Representative Don Manzullo (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, Richard Auman raised $100K to Manzullo’s $1.3 million, the 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents Robert Abboud

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Long shot

District: IL-17

Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield

Representative Phil Hare (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents Hare raised about $800K; his opponent, Andrea Zinga, about $400K

Current opponents None

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: IL-18

Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL

Representative Ray LaHood (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents neither raised money

Current opponents unclear!

Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)

Assessment Unclear

I somehow left out IL-19, more later

District: IL-19

Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south  and east to the IN and KY border

Representative John Shimkus

First elected  

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents

Current opponents John McMenamin

Demographics

Assessment Long shot

1 comment

    • plf515 on February 27, 2008 at 3:33 pm
      Author

    for those so inclined

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