Congressional races round 2: Florida

Here’s part four of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Florida has 25 representatives: 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats

Filing deadline is May 2, primary is Aug 26

Of the 22 districts with more than 17% veterans, 12 are in Florida; I think this makes Florida an excellent pickup ground – the veterans, traditionally a very solidly Republican group – are tired of the war and tired of being abused by the powers that be.  Remember – Democrats support the troops, Republicans support the war

District: FL-01

Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola

Representative Jeff Miller (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 72-29

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $50K

Current opponents

Joe Roberts

and

Bryan James (no web site)

Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th  most Republican district per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-02

Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee

Representative Allen Boyd (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-44

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bee Kilmer raised over $1 million, Boyd just over $2 million

Current opponents Mark Flowers and Robert Ortiz; neither has a web site

Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Safe (a safe Dem in a swing seat)

District: FL-03

Location The ‘joint’ where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrmandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville.  This district has been the subject of lots of contoversy – it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th.  Here:



District          %Black       %Bush 04

03                  49.3          35

04                  13.5          69  

05                   4.5          58

06                  11.9          61

07                   8.8          57  

24                   6.3          55



and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured.

Representative Corrine Brown (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)

Assessment Safe.  The benefit of a gerrymander is a seat where no opponents run

District: FL-04

Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA

Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Notes on opponents Robert Harms, the 2006 opponent, raised less than $50K

Current opponents :

Robert Harms

and

Jay McGovern

Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-05

Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle

Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents John Russell, in 2006, raised less than $100K, Robert Whittel, in 2004, raised about $140K

Current opponents Dave Werder

Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)

Assessment In 2004, Russell got outspent 10-1 and still got 40% – that indicates some vulnerability; Brown-Waite also faces a primary challenge.  I can’t find much about Werder….his blog is a bit odd.

District: FL-06

Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida

Representative Cliff Stearns (R)

First elected 1988

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, David Bruderly raise $150K to Stearns’ $450K.  Bruderly also ran in 2004 and 2002

Current opponents David Bruderly

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-07

Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach

Representative John Mica (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, John Chagnon raised only $11K

Current opponents :

Faye Armitage

and

James Clyde Malloy

Both look like progressives; Faye actually saw my diary in the last series, and wrote to me about the demographics, asking questions about hte model I used.

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)

Assessment I think there are possibilities.  The district is 9% Black, the Cook PVI is only R+4, and Mica hasn’t faced a serious challenge in 16 years.

District: FL-08

Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando

Representative Ric Keller (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 53-46

2004 margin 61-39

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Charlie Stuart raised almost $1 million to Keller’s $1.7 million

Current opponents

Charlie Stuart

and

Corbett Kroehler

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Another possible pickup.  Stuart nearly did it in 2006, now he has to have better name recognition; and he has another weapon: Keller promised to leave.  See this story

District: FL-09

Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south – it’s shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees.

Representative Gus Bilirakis (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Phyllis Busansky, in 2006, raised $1.4 million to Bilirakis’ $2.6 million

Current opponents

Bill Mitchell

Anita de Palma”

John Dicks

Michael van Hoek

Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)

Assessment Another possible pickup – the very fact that there are 4 Democrats running is some indication of that.

District: FL-10

Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09.

Representative Bill Young (R)

First elected  1970

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $100K; but this district is getting more competitive.  In many prior years, Young was unopposed.  In 2000, he got 76%. And Young is getting old (born 1940)

Current opponents Samm Simpson , who ran in 2006

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)

Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable.  If we get some breaks, it’s possible we could win here.

District: FL-11

Location Tampa and St. Petersburg

Representative Kathy Castor

First elected  2006

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Eddie Adams raised about $30K

Current opponents Eddie Adams and Tim Fasano

Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)

Assessment Probably safe.  Although Adams is Black, he did quite poorly last time, and I see no reason for him to do better now

District: FL-12

Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay

Representative Adam Putnam (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-20 (against two people with no party)

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents None of the recent opponents had money

Current opponents Doug Tudor

Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-13

Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia

Representative Vern Buchanan (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Perhaps the most expensive race in 2006 (I haven’t compiled the numbers). Buchanan spent $8 million and his opponent, Christine Jennings, spent $3 million.  Katherine Harris’ former seat.

Current opponents:

Chris Jennings

and

Mike LaFevers (apparently, although his site is down)

Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)

Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, and this year, he may lose (de jure as well as de facto)

District: FL-14

Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers

Representative Connie Mack (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Notes on opponents Neeld, who ran both in 2004 and 2006, got less than $50K each time

Current opponents :

Larry Byrnes

and

Robert Neeld

and a Republican

Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)

Assessment Neeld has failed twice, I know nothing about Byrnes, but it seems like a long shot

District: FL-15

Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach

Representative Dave Weldon (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Bob Bowman, in 2006, raised about $100K to Buchanan’s $900K

Current opponents

Bob Bowman (who appears a bit….errrr….odd; for one thing, he’s a 9/11 conspiracy guy) (according to this comment he is not running)

and

Steve Blythe

Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but this is a Democratic year.  With an open seat….And no Republicans have declared yet… who knows?

District: FL-16

Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it’s narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington

Representative Tim Mahoney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Negron, in 2006, raised $800K to succeed Mark Foley

Current opponents At least three

Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: FL-17

Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood

Representative Kendrick Meek (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K).  The most Democratic district in the South

Assessment Safe

District: FL-18

Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there

Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

First elected  1989

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither recent opp raised $100K

Current opponents Annette Tadeo

Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  Taddeo should give Ros-Lehtinen a run for her money.

District: FL-19

Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach

Representative Robert Wexler (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unoppposed

Bush margin 2004 34-66

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Only a primary

Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment  Safe

District: FL-20

Location Another weirdly shaped district.  What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little… ohh… go look at the wiki.

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D)

First elected  2004 (D)

2006 margin unoppsed

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.

Assessment Safe

District: FL-21

Location This one is shaped like a ?.  Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map.  Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats.

Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 73-27 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents :

Raul Martinez (obviously not a finished web site)

and

Richard Allbriton

Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  From all accounts, Martinez makes this one highly competitive

District: FL-22

Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It’s south Florida along the Atlantic….more or less.

Representative Ron Klein (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents Klein ousted Clay Shaw; Klein raised $4 million, Shaw $5 million

Current opponents Allen West

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  West does not appear to be a serious threat, but others might be

District: FL-23

Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee

Representative Alcee Hastings (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 24-76

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  Marion Thorpe

Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)

Assessment Safe

District: FL-24

Location Atlantic coast, towards the north.

Representative Tom Feeney (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents :

Suzanne Kosmas

Clint Curtis (who ran in 2006)

and

Garv Bhola

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment  I had thought this a long shot, but see comments (on dailyKos diary): Kosmas has apparently raised more money than Feeney, and Feeney is tied to some scandals

District: FL-25

Location Southern end of Florida

Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents Joe Garcia

Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)

Assessment Vulnerable

Summary: I see only one vulnerable Democrat (Mahoney) and as many as 8 at least somewhat vulnerable Republicans

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    • plf515 on February 24, 2008 at 3:56 pm
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    for those so inclined

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