Here’s part three of the second round of congressional races. Earlier parts are here
Colorado has 7 representatives: 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans. Filing deadline May 29, primary August 12
Connecticut has 5 representative, 4 Democrats and 1 Republican. Filing deadline May 3, primary August 12
Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican. Filing deadline July 25, primary Sept 9
District: CO-01
Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern
Representative Diana DeGette (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)
2004 margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 31-68
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money. DeGette has won easily since her first race
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)
Assessment Safe
District: CO-02
Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies. Also the exurbs of Denver
Representative Mark Udall (D) retiring (to run for
Senate)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 68-28
2004 margin 67-30
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised more than $15,000
Current opponents There are three declared Democrats, and no Republicans (although some are considering it). The declared:
1. Joan Fitz-Gerald
2. Will Shafroth
3. Jared Polis
All three look good, but, from their websites, Joan Fitz-Gerald looks the most progressive (to me).
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This district is increasingly Democratic (Udall’s margin increased each time; Bush got less in 2004 than 2000) and with three good Democrats, it should stay blue
District: CO-03
Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen
Representative John Salazar (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 62-37
2004 margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents Walcher, in 2004, raised $1.5 million, about the same as Salazar. In 2006, Tipton raised almost a million, Salazar more than $2 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)
Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe. It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but Salazar is better than McInnis was.
District: CO-04
Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver
Representative Marilyn Musgrave (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 46-43 (remainder Reform)
2004 margin 51-45
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Notes on opponents Angie Paccione, in 2006, raised almost $2 million to Musgrave’s $3.2 million;
Current opponents Betsey Markey
Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Musgrave was labeled “one of the most corrupt members of congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Not a lot of Republicans could lose in this district, but Musgrave is one of them
District: CO-05
Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs
Representative Doug Lamborn (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Notes on opponents Fawcett raised $600K to Lamborn’s $900K
Current opponents No declared Democrats, but there’s several Republicans going after Lamborn.
Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.
Assessment A long shot
District: CO-06
Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver
Representative Tom Tancredo (R)*retiring*
First elected 1998
2006 margin 59-40
2004 margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised almost a million
Current opponents Mike Collins
Demographics One of the wealthiest districts (median income = $73K, 6th place, and fewest people in poverty of any district (2.7%)
Assessment No Republicans have declared, but this is a solidly Republican district.
District: CO-07
Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward
Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 55-42
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Perlmutter and his opponent (Rick O’Donnell) raised almost $3 million each
Current opponents none declared
Demographics Not unusual in what I track
Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate
District: CT-01
Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle
Representative John Larson (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin 73-27
Bush margin 2004 39-60
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on things I track
Assessment Safe
District: CT-02
Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London
Representative Joe Courtney (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 83 votes
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 44-54
Notes on opponents In 2006, Courtney knocked off Rob Simmons. Courtney had $2.5 million, Simmons over $3 million
Current opponents Sean Sullivan
Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)
Assessment Having beaten an incumbent, Courtney should have an easier time now, but this district is far from safe.
District: CT-03
Location New Haven and areas around it
Representative Rosa DeLauro
First elected 1990
2006 margin 76-22
2004 margin 72-25
Bush margin 2004 42-56
Notes on opponents neither recent opponent raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: CT-04
Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound
Representative Christopher Shays (R)
First elected 1987
2006 margin 51-48
2004 margin 52-48
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Notes on opponents In the 2006 race, Dianne Farrell raised almost $3 million, Shays, almost $4 million
Current opponents Jim Himes a former investment banker who then ran non-profits; others are considering it
Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)
Assessment Shays has been close… will this be the year? Likely to be very close again
District: CT-05
Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden
Representative Chris Murphy (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 54-44
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy beat Nancy Johnson, the incumbent. She raised $5 million (not a typo) he raised $2.5 million.
Current opponents David Capiello
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Not quite safe, but probably OK; comments on dailyKos indicate Capiello has little money and not much chance
District: DE-AL
Location Delaware.
Representative Mike Castle (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 57-39
2004 margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Notes on opponents Spivack, in 2006, raised $300K to Castle’s $1.1 million
Current opponents
1. Jerry Northington who blogs on daily Kos as possum.
2. Karen Hartley-Nagle
3. 3. Chris Bullock
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!
2 comments
Author
Pres. Obama will need Democrats in Congress
Connecticut goes all blue, but we have that asshole Lieberman until ’12.
Crap.