I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to dailyKos and SwingStateProject
In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, and MD; today, MS where filing closed on 1/11, WV, where it closed on 1/26 and KY, where it closed on 1/29
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics. I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
Mississippi has 4 congressional districts
2 are held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans
West Virginia has 3 seats; 2 held by Democrats and 1 by a Republican
Kentucky has 6 seats; 2 held by Democrats and 4 by Republicans
The 6 held by Democrats are
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
KY-03 D+2 .30 Yarmuth Yes Vulnerable
KY-06 R+7 .56 Chandler No
MS-02 D+10 .14 Thompson No
MS-04 R+16 .52 Taylor No
WV-01 R+6 .67 Mollohan No
WV-03 D+0 .71 Rahall Yes Mostly safe
OK, Taylor, Mollohand and Rahall are hardly my ideal Democrats; but they are running without serious Republican opposition in Republican districts.
The seats held by Republicans are
KY-01 R+10 .74
The 1stis mostly the southeastern corner of the state along the TN border, but it loops up around KY-02.
Whitfield, first elected in 1994, does not appear to have an opponent.
KY-02 R +13 .73
The 2nd is more or less the middle of the state.
Lewis, also first elected in 1994, and also does not appear to have an opponent.
KY-04 R+12 .74
The 4th is the northern part of KY, bordering OH and IN
Davis, first elected in 2004, had a relatively close race in 2006, when he beat Ken Lucas 52-43, with the rest going to a libertarian. Davis spent over $4 million (after spending $3 million in 2004) while Lucas spent about $1.5 million.
He’s being challenged again, this time by Michael Kelley (One heck of a nice website, if you ask me, with embedded video, and good links)
KY-05 R +8 .79
The 5th is the easternmost part of KY, bordering VA and WV.
Rogers, first elected in 1980, has won easily for years, sometimes unopposed.
This time, he does have an opponent, Kenneth Stepp, who has his own blog .
MS-01 R+10 .63
The first is the northeast portion of MS, along the border with TN.
Wicker, who was first elected in 1994, is leaving to be a Senator.
I don’t really know what’s going on…it’s a very Republican district, but I don’t have any specific information; there is some info in this diary and comments
MS-03 R+14 .52
The 3rd cuts diagonally across MS from Natchez in the SW corner of the state (bordering LA) to Starkville and the AL border.
Pickering, first elected in 1996, is also retiring.
Another seat where I don’t have good info.
WV-02 R +5 .74
The 2nd cuts across the middle of WV from east to west, and borders on both OH and MD (and almost PA).
Capito, first elected in 2000, has had some significant challenges. In 2006, she spent over $2 million to get 57% of the vote against Mike Callaghan, who had about $600,000.
At least two Democrats are running: John Unger and Thornton Cooper . Unger seems to have raised quite a lot of money – I didn’t total it, but it looks like about $100,000 already.
Summary:
In KY, Yarmuth seems vulnerable; Chandler might be, as well, but no one is running. Among the Repubs, only Davis seems vulnerable.
In MS, both Democrats are unopposed. The Republican situation has me flummoxed.
In WV, we are safe, and Capito might be vulnerable.
1 comment
Author
tips, comments, thoughts, recommends, suggestions…..