Wake Up, Pakistan is Imploding

So much has happened over the last 48 hours that I cannot report it all. Also I am no expert on Pakisatan. But from what I have read,  it soumds like, once again, the US is continuing on a collision course with ‘reality’ only this time the tinder box has exponentially broader potential consequences. There’s more…

I do not need to go into details of the Bush administrations misguided support of Musharraf through this current phase of martial law, and banishment of democracy from Pakistan.

What I personally did not realize prior to reading about current events was the following:

(1) The Pakistani army will not be able to supress, except sporadically, the new Al Qaeda Pakistani Taliban.  The Pakistan army is in a state of  crippling demoralization,  soldiers unable – and to a significant extent – unwilling to quell the rapid swelling of the ranks of the ‘neo-taliban’  which together with the Taliban in Afghanistan, now stand at 18,000.

(2) Many have  been watching this for a while and questionning  Musharref’s on-going pandering to the West and going after insurgents in the North Western Province areas when all the while it was quite obvious that carrying on a US proxy war would put him in an untennable situation. As a matter of fact, taking the money and pretending to has not served him well either.

(3) Yesterday Bhutto and her PPP party officially broke off all communication and called for Musharraf to resign immediately both as head of the Army and as Presidemt. According to today’s Washington Post, she phoned her rivals for power in an attempt to consolidate their bases to over throw him. Talk about a fluid situation.

She also got on the phone to bitter old rivals including Qazi Hussain Ahmed, head of an alliance of Islamist parties, and cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan to urge a “coalition of interests,” party officials said on Wednesday

Washiongton Post

and from averageameriacnpatriotblogspot : (patriot as in the team)

*I want to add that while musharraf is concentrating on arresting opponents Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and assorted terrorists and Insurgents are preparing to go after him, those nukes, Afghanistan, and more. Anyway Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto escalated her confrontation with the government by calling on Pakistanis to rise against the imposition of emergency rule by Pervez Musharraf, the nation’s president and army chief. “I appeal to the people of Pakistan to come forward. We are under attack,” Ms. Bhutto told a news conference after holding talks with other opposition leaders in Islamabad.Bhutto vowed to lead a protest march by her Pakistan People’s Party Friday to the garrison town of Rawalpindi, which also is home to Gen. Musharraf. The government has banned the protest, raising the prospects for large-scale clashes between supporters of Ms. Bhutto and security forces.

(4) Last night Musharraf announced that the Pakistani army had regained control of the tribal area Swat, and within hours the Pakastani Taliban announced that they had seized control of the next town. Much of the area has been and remains under Taliban control.

(5) Most disturbing to me is to me is watching Pakistan unravel into looking like Iran of the 70’s – it seems almost certain to become a highly radicalized Islamic State –  With Nuclear Weapons.

(6) And perhaps this is what Bush/Cheney intended? Some grand excuse to go in there and remove their nuclear capability? And if so, it is highly unlikely we will be welcomed.  To quote an a Taliban Pakistani leader:

“The mujahideen have now acquired such strength that neither Pakistan nor NATO can fight against us. The Taliban are standing on both sides of the border. More operations breed more Taliban, and this time the Taliban will rule the whole region,” Maroof said confidently.


Well that does not sound good, however accurate.

I stand in disbelief that one administration could destabalize the world as quickly as this one has.  And lets not even talk about the complete disregard the United State press corps has for keeping our country informed.

But don’t the reporters notice that the very pictures they are showing contradict the realist frame? General Musharraf has not suspended the constitution to fight terrorism. He has not even continued to fight terrorism while suspending the constitution for other reasons. Of course the Pakistan Army is happy to pocket the $100 million a year it receives for giving the U.S. basing rights and otherwise supporting the effort in Afghanistan (while undermining it in other — and cheaper — ways). The Pakistan Army is not about to commit suicide by openly defying the whole international community and cutting off support for NATO operations in Afghanistan.


Now that I got you up, I’m going to try to get a little sleep……..


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  1. LAHORE, Pakistan (CNN) — Pakistani opposition leader Imran Khan was arrested in Lahore Wednesday during a student demonstration at a university campus, Lahore police said.

    A photo of Pakistan’s opposition politician Imran Khan as seen during a rally against President Musharraf in London

    The development came as former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto remained under house arrest one day after calling for the first time on President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to completely give up power.

    • Edger on November 14, 2007 at 15:51

    60 Years of Pakistan

    As Pakistan completes 60 years of existence, it is passing through a critical phase. The state’s writ does not run over almost half its territory. Most people consider themselves as Sindhis, Baloch, Pakhtoons, Mohajirs and Punjabis first rather than as Pakistanis. Pakistan as a nation is kept together artificially by the only institution that functions – the army.

    Despite belated attempts by the judiciary to assert its independence, the fact is that for most part of Pakistan’s existence the courts have been dysfunctional and came out with the bizarre ‘Doctrine of Necessity’ to justify military coups. Pakistan’s greatest tragedy has been that barring the armed forces or army to be specific, no other credible institution has emerged. The judiciary, legislature and bureaucracy-all have crumbled during Pakistan’s six decades’ journey.

    Sub-nationalism emerged as a serious threat to the Pakistani state. Islamic fundamentalists challenge the writ of the government across the length and breadth of Pakistan. Islamabad’s frequent flip-flops on the foreign policy front and frequent incursions by American armed forces within Pakistani territory have compromised its sovereignty in the eyes of its citizens.

    Given that history it is not too far a stretch to assume that all of Rice and Bush’s protestations are nothing but smoke, mirrors, and bullshit to feed the American public, and that they helped orchestrate Musharraf’s martial law, to anger Islamic fundamentalists within the country and destabilize Pakistan as much as possible.

    It would not surprise me to find that at least some in the administration, particularly in Cheney’s camp, would like nothing better than an Islamic fundamentalist coup or takeover of nuclear armed Pakistan to give them the perfect excuse for cranking up the WOT rhetoric again, nuking Pakistan, and Iran next door. The rapturists on Bush’s side of the aisle would love it as well.

    It’s almost an exact parallel to the bumbling fuckups by the CIA in Iran that led to the revolution there in the 70’s, isn’t it?

    Operation Ajax was hatched–the brainchild of the CIA’s Middle East chief, Kermit Roosevelt, who directed it from Tehran.(35) Also sent there was Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf, whose job was to recruit anti-Mossadegh forces with CIA money.(36) The objective of Operation Ajax was to help the shah get rid of Mossadegh and replace him with the shah’s choice for prime minister, Gen. Fazlollas Zahedi, who had been jailed by the British during World War II for pro-Nazi activities.(37)

    The covert operation began, appropriately enough, with assurances to Mossadegh from the U.S. ambassador, Loy Henderson, that the United States did not plan to intervene in Iran’s internal affairs. The operation then filled the streets of Tehran with mobs of people–many of them thugs– who were loyal to the shah or who had been recipients of CIA largess. In the ensuing turmoil, which included fighting in the streets that killed 300 Iranians, Mossadegh fled and was arrested. On August 22, 12 days after he had fled, the shah returned to Tehran.

    Once restored to power, the shah entered into an agreement with an international consortium, 40 percent of which was held by American oil companies, for the purchase of Iranian oil. It was symptomatic of the postwar displacement of British by U.S. interests that the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company was not restored to its previous dominance.(42) In succeeding years the United States regarded the shah as a key ally in the Middle East and provided his repressive and corrupt government with billions of dollars in aid and arms.

    The restoration of the shah to the Peacock Throne engendered immense hostility toward the United States and had cataclysmic consequences. The revolutionary torrent that built up was ultimately too much for even the United States to handle. By the late 1970s the shah and his poor record on human rights had become so repugnant to the State Department under Cyrus Vance that almost any alternative was deemed preferable to the shah’s rule. But the shah had his defenders at the Pentagon and on the National Security Council who still thought he was important to regional stability and who favored his taking decisive action to restore order. President Carter at first was ambivalent. U.S. policy evolved from a suggestion that the shah gradually relinquish power to a call for him to leave the country. On January 16, 1979, the shah, as he had in 1953, took leave of his country–this time for good.(43)

    When the monarchy was finally overthrown in the 1978-79 revolution, which was inspired by Islamic fundamentalism and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iranians held Americans hostage for over a year at the U.S. embassy in Tehran, and the United States suffered a humiliating repudiation of its foreign policy in the Middle East.

    The neocons never learn. They keep ignoring history thinking that they will somehow be able to dominate the world and that if only they’ll keep making the same idiotic mistakes long enough, regardless of how many people die, they’ll get lucky some day.

    And this time around…

    If Musharraf falls from power, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons might fall under the control of known lunatics, while America’s nuclear weapons are already under the control of known lunatics.


  2. I posted this current events list because Pakistan is starting to spin into chaos and there is an almost eery lack of hard news coverage in the US. It is as if we are all about to be taken by a very big and bad surprise.

    Your comment is really appreciated – as I said – no Pakistan expert am I – but I do know when we are about to be snookered again.

    My concern – which you, rather unfortunately, quickly went to is a Pakistan/Iran front to the war – with thesed ‘idiots‘ indeed siding with Masharaaf to stop the creatuon of a ‘nuclear armed Islamist nation’ threat – which are creating

    Pakistan is so complicated and this is coming round so fast that it will have the effect of an October Surprise pretty much delivered on time – although unexpectedly – and without real information – this is the much sought after excuse to bomb bomb bomb Iran.

  3. We will probably find out the precise nature of their relationship with the Bush administration…

  4. Today the U.S. military presence is perhaps the single most inflammatory element in politics across the region. The American military response to this regional challenge only serves to exacerbate it. Sadly, Pakistan is now swift on the heels of Iraq and Afghanistan in heading toward increased civil strife and bitter anti-American emotions.

    A “made in Washington” settlement in Afghanistan – the heart of the problem – is not going to work. It only generates increasing hostility as thousands more Lilliputians swarm the helpless Gulliver, drawing hostile Pakistani Islamists more deeply into the equation as well. In this sense bin Laden is winning. The region will only calm down following a withdrawal of U.S. forces from its confrontation with “Islam” and the development of a regional approach to the Afghan issue – one that acknowledges the deep interests of the main regional players who also seek stability in the region: Pakistan, Iran, Russia, China and India. Yet this reality is anathema to the hegemonic global strategy of the Bush administration.


    earlier in the article the author points out, as Edger has, the neo-con agenda of inching towards WWW IV


  5. Some days it seems that the blogosphere is months or even weeks ahead of BushCo in figuring these things out. Edger has had some insightful comments on the issue in recent weeks, as well.

    But then, unlike BushCo, the blogosphere actively seeks to stumble, however uncomfortably, toward reality rather than mire itself in medieval delusions.

    These next 14 months are going to be hard. Very hard. And not just in Pakistan.

    Benazir Bhutto has just opened the door to the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami in an effort to form a broad opposition front to Musharraf, and the Islamists seem to be interested in listening to her. But I haven’t as yet spotted any indication that Benazir might be willing to do the same with old arch-rival Nawaz Sharif (at the moment in exile in Saudi Arabia) and his Punjabi-based wing of the Pakistan Muslim League.

    Musharraf is flailing in a desperate bid to survive. He no longer seems to have any strategy except to hold on to power for the next 24 hours. He seems to be completely in reactive, tactical mode. I would guess that an ambitious general will remove the enfeebled Musharraf within weeks and try to take his place as the holder of real power. Deputy Army Chief Ashfaq Kiyani is a possibility, but it is equally possible that an ambitious corps commander could make a move. Lt. Gen. Mohsin Kamal, the X Corps Commander based in Rawalpindi (near Islamabad), bears watching.

    But if there are two or more ambitious generals, things could become very interesting very fast. It is conceivable that one might wish to join forces with Taliban/al-Qaeda elements that are increasingly dominant in Waziristan and the NWDP, and who are currently taking over the Swat region. There is no shortage of pro-Taliban sentiment in the Pakistani Army, even in the officer corps. And we haven’t even yet considered Baluchistan, which has its own strong separatist and Islmaist tendencies.

    Would the new general make peace with Benazir and offer her the illusion of power as Prime Minister, while the Army continues to call the shots, as it has for most of Pakistan’s existence? Or would the new general try to continue with the harsh imposition of martial law, thereby provoking a fusion of the middle class and the Islamists, as occurred in Iran at the end of the Shah’s reign?

    The bottom line is that there is very little that the U.S. can now do to affect the outcome.

    And the Paks have components for four or five dozen nukes spread in depots around the country. If Osama bin Laden would like al-Qaeda to have a nuke, his most likely approach would be to obtain the fissile material (U-235 in Pakistan’s case) from one of the Pakistani depots and then fabricate his own primitive “gun barrel” device, a task well within the capabilities of a non-state entity with a little engineering and mechanical skill. Perhaps he would be able to obtain all of the necessary components with help from sympathizers within the Pakistani Army.

    At some point, perhaps within months, it may actually prove necessary for the U.S. to sit down and negotiate with bin Laden. If he is able to acquire one or more nuclear devices, there would be no rational alternative.

    Interesting times.

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