Mark this date on your calendar: 11/12/07. On Monday, November 12th, 2007, we will be through the looking glass of US history.
On August 3rd through August 5th of 2005, Time/SRBI polled the American people and found that fifty percent of Americans approved and forty-six percent of Americans disapproved of President George W. Bush’s job performance. 50% to 46%. That was the last poll by any of the major polling organizations tracked by Roper Center in which the President’s approvals were equal to or higher than his disapprovals. August 5th, 2005 was two years, three months ago, tomorrow.
Between October 8th and October 13th of 1950, Gallup showed forty-three percent of Americans approved and thirty-six percent disapproved of President Harry S Truman. 43% to 36%. That was the last Gallup Poll in which Truman’s approvals were equal to or higher than his disapprovals. Eisenhower took office two years, three months and seven days later.
Nixon does not bear comparison here. His approvals beat his disapprovals for the last time on May 4th through May 7th of 1973. He resigned on August 9th, 1974. That’s only one year, three months and two days in the tank.
In other words, if President Bush’s approval ratings remain below his disapproval ratings for another eight days, we will be through the looking glass. Bush will have been on his unpopularity run for two years, three months, and seven days. He will have beaten Truman for the longest unpopularity streak in the history of reliable approval polling. A record. Mark it down.
But further than that, I, for one, am willing to bet that Bush will continue his streak until the end of his term in office. In other words — on the not-very-risky assumption that I’m right — in the political history of the United States nothing like this has ever happened before.
As with Joe DiMaggio’s batting streak, hitting singles-or-better in 56 straight games, Bush’s record will be an incredible achievement, probably never to be repeated.
Unless the country elects Giuliani. Then all bets are off.
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Going back this far, Roper Center only uses Gallup; I’m no historian of opinion polling, but Gallup appears to be the first widely respected polling organization. So it seems this way of running the comparison is valid. If I’m favoring anyone here, it’s Bush.
I’m going outlaw. Government can’t bogart all the fun.