reposted from DailyKos
From now on, as I update this series, you’re going to get it here first, on docudharma, and they will have to wait a day or two over at big Orange.
This is the first of what will be an occasional series attempting to predict how many seats we will gain in the Senate. A separate series will look at the House.
What I do is gather information from various sources for each race, attempt to turn that into a probability of the Democrat and Republican winning the seat. Then, I use R to simulate the combined races.
More below the fold
For those who like to cut to the chase, here are my predictions. Each row has a number of seats gained, and an associated probability
We have about a 50% chance of gaining more than 5 seats.
How did I get these numbers?
Here are my estimates of the probability for each seat switching parties
1 % chance
DE, GA, IL MI, RI, MA, MS, SC, WV, WY1, WY2
These are seats I really don’t think will switch, but I figure something really weird could happen.
AL, ARA IA, KS, MT, NJ, OK
These are seats that aren’t likely to switch, but where there is a chance.
ID, KY, NC, TN, TX
SD is a red state, usually. But it’s hard to run a nasty campaign against someone recovering from surgery.
AK is also a red state, but the Stevens is very old, and it’s now becoming clear he’s a crook. If Stevens retires, I think the chance of AK staying Republican improve.
LA, ME, NM, OR
LA is our one trouble spot.
ME has a popular representative (Allen) running against a still popular senator (Collins), but in an increasingly blue state with great antipathy to Bush and the war.
NM maybe better than 50% chance.
OR – Smith is very unpopular, but, so far, the Democrats aren’t winning the polls. May improve
more than 50% chance
MN and NE 60% chance
MN is a blue state with two good Democratic candidates (Franken and Ciresi) and a very unpopular senator (Coleman)
NE is based on Bob Kerrey getting into the race.
CO 70% chance
An open seat, and CO is going bluer all the time
VA and NH 90% chance
Warner (VA) and Shaheen (NH) both have big leads in the polls