OK, We Tried THAT….Now What America?

Bamboozled by a blow job, America turned to Republicanism to save it from moral decay and to restore ‘honor.’

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How’s that workin out for ya there, America?

Confused by relative peace, a good economy, growing but slow progress on Gay and Civil Rights, the respect of the world, a long record of fairly successful diplomatic effort, progress on the environment and huge budget surpluses…..America turned to Republicanism.

And has nearly destroyed itself.

We literally went from a country of peace, prosperity and tolerance to a country of perpetual war, hatred, racism, torture and looming economic collapse in what must be viewed in historical terms as …overnight.

In a mere seven years we have mad a transition from the hope of the world to the bully of the world….to a laughingstock of the world. All because of one thing: Republicanism.

All through the Clinton years, Republicans chomped at the bit. They had a new philosophy and new spokespeople. No longer would they hide some of the aspects of Republicanism that they had been forced to keep in the closet for so long. Things like racism, homophobia, rabid religiosity, and Manifest Destiny that enabled us to, in their eyes, really BE America….IOW REALLY be who they are, were discredited and disrespected.

Not to mention things like a Robber Baron Economy, raping the environment for profit and the destruction of the middle class. These were the things that the evil libruls were keeping repressed. Damn them….they were keeping America from being great! 

Now as the Clinton years ended and they triumphed over fellatio…They Had Their Big Chance!!!

They were in control of EVERYTHING! Unfettered Republicanism could now flourish and thrive….they could do things their way with meddling bleeding hearts getting in the way! Hallelujah, they were free at last! They were able to act out every philosophy, precept, theology and policy of Republicanism virtually unthreatened. Including a perfect chance to try out the doctrine of Manifest Destiny Superpower Might Makes Right….We can just TAKE what we want.

And here we are.

All of the ‘promise’ of Republicanism has been fulfilled.

The famous question: Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?

Only if you are a CEO or in a mercenary army.

Of the fifty percent of Americans who voted for Republicanism……a full HALF of them have jumped ship, using Bush’s poll numbers as the most obvious measure.

Republicanism has failed and failed miserably. The closer the election gets….the more we need to emphasize that.

But the reason I have gathered you here today is not just to state what is obvious to us…and to encourage you to trash Republicans and Republicanism vociferously. It is to ask a question….

….when the Democrats regain full control in ’08, how much will all these years of Republicanism influence them?

Even after we win the White House and increase our majorities to levels high enough that even Dem leadership can’t pretend we don’t have them….how much will the hangover over Republicanism still linger. How much will the mental limits they have imposed upon themselves in the face of the Republican rhetorical terrorism centered around the “traitor” meme that Rove was so successful in implementing?

After a decade of Republican dominance and fear mongering, how much will the now epic and legendary spinelessness of the Democrats ‘allow’ them to still act weak and cravenly and capitulate to entities such as the Fundies and the Military Industrial Complex and the Corporatocracy?

Will they continue to be reactive instead of proactive?

How much will they cling to the myth of cowboy jingoistic Republicanism?

How much will they still continue to fear and pander to what has now obviously become a small minority of people who are still stupid enough to still believe in the failed ideology of Republicanism, hatred, war and environmental destruction?

Continue to play it safe….continue to look ahead to the next election, instead of acting on the problems and challenges we face now?

Will they follow a ‘safe’ middle road?

Or will they craft a new vision for America and the world and implement it?

Now more than ever, our future depends on it.

Message to Al: Jump In or Drop Out!

Just got this e-mail from Democracy for America:

  Dear Thomas,

Our challenge to Al Gore: Jump In or Drop Out!

Something surprising is happening at Democracy for America; former Vice President Al Gore is leading the race for the DFA Presidential endorsement — as a write-in candidate.

Voting is still open until November 5 at midnight, and there is plenty of time for any candidate to win. All your candidate needs is your vote right now:

http://www.Democracy…

Despite the fact that Al Gore has not announced that he will run and wasn’t even included in the endorsement poll, DFA members have seized the power and written him in. With over 65,000 votes cast so far, the time has come for Vice President Gore to make a decision.

The clock is ticking. We are deep into the 11th hour. There are fewer than 90 days until the first votes are cast. And filing deadlines to be on the ballot start closing in just days.

You deserve to know. Is Al Gore in or out?

Together, we are the boots on the ground that knock on doors, make phone calls, and recruit new supporters whether advocating for the next president or electing Governor Howard Dean to Chair the Democratic National Committee.  DFA members are working to take our country back and the DFA endorsement is worth more than just words to the candidate that wins.

Vote for your candidate now:

http://www.Democracy…

Of course, this is not an ordinary endorsement poll. All voters are asked for their top three choices. And in the end, only an announced candidate can win the DFA endorsement. That means this will be the first poll in the nation that can accurately report both the remarkable support Al Gore has in the progressive grassroots AND which announced candidates earn that support if he never jumps in.

When we announce the results on November 6th, one year from Election Day, everyone will be watching.

Don’t keep us waiting, Mr. Gore. It is time for an answer.

Arshad Hasan
Executive Director

——————————————————————————–

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Stark Apologizes

The GOP censure motion of Pete Stark failed. Apparently there was a quid pro quo. He apologized

This was badly handled all around. While I thought Stark’s comments stupid and counterproductive, they did not merit all this nonsense. This is a bad business.

Priests Sentenced in Fort Huachuca Torture Protest Case

(Do what you can….@8pm – promoted by buhdydharma )

On October 17, Louis Vitale and Stephen Kelly, two priests arrested for trespassing as they sought to deliver a letter protesting U.S. violations of the Geneva Convention in relation to torture, were sentenced to five months in prison. Fr. Vitale is 75 years old.

On November 19, 2006, Vitale and Kelly had tried to give their protest letter to Major General Barbara Fast, then-commandant of Fort Huachuca Army Base, and previously intelligence chief for the U.S. command in Baghdad during the period the worst abuses took place at Abu Ghraib. Fort Huachuca itself is the site for the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School. It is alleged that torture techniques are taught at the school. See my article “Torture on Trial in Arizona Desert” for more on the trial and on Ft. Huachuca. Most notable was the judge’s refusal in the case to allow any evidence about U.S. use of torture or “the morality or immorality of the government’s use of interrogation techniques…”

According to an article in the Arizona Daily Star:

U.S. Magistrate Héctor C. Estrada said he was reluctantly sending the priests to prison. He said he would have preferred that they do community-service work and remain under court supervision while living in their communities.

But Vitale and Kelly had previously said they would not comply with any kind of court supervision because it would mean giving up their social-justice work.

Additionally, one of the conditions of probation was that Vitale and Kelly not associate with non-violent protest groups, such as School of the Americas Watch. Meanwhile, SOA has published the two priests statement made upon sentencing, reproduced here in full (emphases added):

The real crime here has always been the teaching of torture at Fort Huachuca and the practice of torture around the world. We sought to deliver a letter asking that the teaching of torture be stopped and were arrested. We tried to put the evidence of torture on full and honest display in the courthouse and were denied. We were prepared to put on evidence about the widespread use of torture and human rights abuses committed during interrogations at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo in Iraq and Afghanistan. This evidence was gathered by the military itself and by governmental and human rights investigations. Because the court will not allow the truth of torture to be a part of our trial, we plead no contest. We are uninterested in a court hearing limited to who was walking where and how many steps it was to the gate. History will judge whether silencing the facts of torture is just or not. Far too many people have died because of our national silence about torture. Far too many of our young people in the military have been permanently damaged after following orders to torture and violate the human rights of other humans. We will keep trying to stop the teaching and practice of torture whether we are sent to jail or out. We have done our part. Now it is up to every woman and man of conscience to do their part to stop the injustice of torture.

One can only deeply admire and appreciate the courage of these two men and their supporters. It is one thing to hold up signs protesting the war in Iraq in relatively safe and liberal San Francisco or Chicago or Boston, it is another to put yourself on the line in bastions of militarism and support for Bush’s “war on terror” such as the bleak cacti-strewn sands of the Arizona desert.

The monks in Burma got a lot of press coverage in this country for standing up to the military dictatorship of that benighted land. But in this country, the names Louis Vitale and Stephen Kelly are barely known. The mainstream press will not lionize their courage or publicize their cause. As you go through your day, think of these men standing up for their beliefs, who will not be silent, sitting in prison in America, and if you get a chance, send some support their way. Then think. Think hard. How will I help change things in this country?

Write a note of support to Fr. Kelly and Fr. Vitale. They were taken to a privately run detention center in Florence, Arizona the day of their sentencing. Since it is not currently known where or when they may be transferred, please send individually addressed letters to them c/o The Nuclear Resister, PO Box 43383, Tucson, AZ 85733 and they will be forwarded.

Fr. Kelly and Fr. Vitale ask that every woman and man of conscience do all that they can to protest the injustice of torture and to end U.S. policy that sanctions torture. They encourage people to participate in the protests at Ft. Benning, Georgia and Ft. Huachuca, Arizona on November 17 and 18, or consider having a protest in your community. For more information, visit School of the Americas Watch (protest at Ft. Benning) and Southwest Weekend of Witness (protest at Ft. Huachuca)

Their commissary needs are taken care of but contributions for prison support expenses are welcome. Checks can be made payable to the Nuclear Resister (please put Torture on Trial on the memo line) and mailed to the Nuclear Resister, PO Box 43383, Tucson, AZ 85733. Contributions can also be made online at [their] secure Donations page.

Also posted at Invictus

Philosophactory: Strange Conditional

Philosophactory: Intermission

The “If-Then”: Natural Language vs. Formal Logic
Philosophy of The Conditional


The five part EXCITING, and LIMITED, and WHATNOT series on ancient
philosopher occurs at 9am PDT, or whatever o’clock your time zone, every
Tuesday and I’m really hurt you haven’t noticed. There are to be five schools
and here the list. Something said to unify the approach to philosophy in
antiquity, that it was to live a good life, well, and sometimes represented
as a state of calmness or tranquility:

  1. School of Epicurus

    the good life is the simple pleasures, freindships, good meals, walks
    at sunset, I add: if willing to endure hardship, add more extreme
    pleasures like surfing.

  2. The Stoics

    the good life, and ataraxia, follows from living a virtuous life, such
    that one becomes indifferent to hardship, and this is considered serene
    virtue

  3. INTERMISSION

    Homemade Conditional

    is being served in the lobby

  4. ??
  5. ???
  6. ????

    free bonus if you act now:

    • ???
    • ?????

(by pyrrho for publishing jointly at MLW and DocuDharma)

Logic vs Natural Language

Ok, this is a strange thing. I put it in a video, because I want to. But I
know many of you are written word junkies, and believe, I mean that
literally, and in the kindest but also you-may-need-help way, so I will
explain my brief point.

The logical form of the “if-then”, such as “if A then B”, is The
Conditional, and it’s a fundamental part of and a basic building blocks of
formal logic, and for that matter, informal logic, and il-logic. But it is
defined in a way that is very different and strange when compared to the
natural language conditional.

A –> B is a way of saying “if A then B”.

A strange thing in logic is that “A –> B” is untrue, false, when A is
true, and B is false. So that leads to two strange things about the
conditional used in formal logic.

Firstly, it means that if both A and B are false, then then A –> B is
true… we wouldn’t think that in natural language. “If bananas are blue then
oceans are made of ginger ale” is true? Maybe, on the theory also supported
in logic that with nonsense you can prove any other nonsense.

Secondly, and what I address in the short video below, meant to either
relax or stimulate you, either way, is the fact that if B is true, then it
doesn’t matter if A is true or false. Contrary to that in natural language it
matters that A is related to B somehow, regardless of the truth value, as
they call it, of A and B.

The example from the video:

If I have viable orange seeds, then I can grow an orange tree.

A = I have viable orange seeds.

B : I can grow an orange tree.

In the historical mainstream of formal logic A–>B here is true because
“I can grow an orange tree” is true. In natural language, it’s also true,
but not for that reason, it’s true because both A and be both mention
oranges, and thus have a relationship, which happens to be true, because
orange trees come from orange seeds.

In logic, this is also true “if I have a puppy, then I can grow an orange
tree”. In natural language that is not true, unless there is some link
between the puppy and the orange tree.

I love logic, but it’s a tool, and I think this is a very serious issue in
terms of what the limitations are for logic as we understand it right now in
terms of applicability to the natural world. It is possibly this logic
holding us back from abstract gains in knowledge in fields other than
physics, due to small errors in ancient logical tools meant, really, to
codify our true thoughts on “if then”.

I believe what we judge is relationships, and by judging the relationships of things, from relative length to relative dependencies, it is always the relationship rather than the thing-in-itself we can really apprehend. The latter is estimated from the former, it seems to me. And so, I like a natural language conditional which relies on the relationship between the two ideas A and B, rather than merely on if they are separately true or not. The assertion is their truth is linked, and not by coincidence.

What We Need: A Do Nothing Congress

Brian Beutler has a terrific run down of what went wrong tactically with the Democratic Congress last week (S-CHIP, FISA, etc.) But Beutler still is looking at the tactical picture and looking at a Congress that he wants to do something. The problem is that, and this is true, they do not have the votes to do something in contested areas like S-CHIP, Iraq funding and FISA. This mistaken focus is exemplified here:

There is no hypothetical package of enticements the Democrats can offer a Republican that outweigh the price that that Republican will pay within his own party. He'll only be treated leniently when his party bosses realize that, if they don't let him vote with the opposition, he might lose his seat. At some point the Republicans realized something crucial: That, for now anyhow, upholding the veto is politically neutral. . . .

What does this mean? It means that even on issues as politically popular as S-CHIP, Bush can stop all Democratic initiatives. The question is then what can the Democrats do? Simply this, END all the Bush travesties. Iraq, FISA, etc. By using the power of the purse and NOT funding them. More.

The question then becomes, as always, a political one, for the Democrats. How would such a counterintuitive strategy of achievement, of NOT doing, be sold politically?

KagroX writes today about Iraq funding:

In the meantime, Bush uses the same old leverage to scare the Dems — the ones who won office to oppose this sort of nonsense — into standing the Constitution on its head, and feeling “forced” to rubber stamp whatever ridiculous request the president makes.

The WaPo correctly describes the landscape:

The Democrats who won control of Congress last year on the back of public opposition to the Iraq war instantly denounced Bush's spending plan and ridiculed him for seeking so much for the conflicts after vetoing the expansion of a children's health insurance program just weeks earlier. But Bush's proposal will force Democrats to confront the politically volatile choice of again following his lead or refusing to provide everything he wants.

What's more, the debate may play out just as the presidential nominating campaigns reach their climax. Although Bush wants the spending approved within two months, Democrats said the military does not need the money until early February, and they do not anticipate acting until early next year. Presidential voting begins with Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3 and the nominations could be sealed when voters in about 22 states cast ballots Feb. 5.

How do you see this one ending?

If one accepts the analytical structure that Beutler adopts, that Congress must do “something,” to have political achievements, then indeed the ending is easy to see. But if a different understanding can be brought to bear, then the ending can be quite different.

The Power of Doing Nothing must be understood and embraced. It is the the only tool available now.

And this produces a dilemma for the Democratic base and progressives, online and off. How to pressure, through carrots and sticks, to produce this change of perspective? I hope at the least we can all embrace these Democratic representatives:

Dear Mr. President:
Seventy House Members wrote in July to inform you that they will only support appropriating additional funds for U.S. military operations in Iraq during Fiscal Year 2008 and beyond for the protection and safe redeployment of our troops out of Iraq before you leave office.

Now you are requesting an additional $45 billion to sustain your escalation of U.S. military operations in Iraq through next April, on top of the $145 billion you requested for military operations during FY08 in Iraq and Afghanistan. Accordingly, even more of us are writing anew to underscore our opposition to appropriating any additional funds for U.S. military operations in Iraq other than a time-bound, safe redeployment as stipulated above.

Blackwater may soon be patrolling our own borders!

In case you thought all the recent bad news about Blackwater might be curtailing the market for private military contractors, two new reports suggest otherwise. Given the Bush Administration’s obsessive efforts to privatize our entire government, it should come as no surprise that Blackwater may be, in fact, as have so many Bush cronies, failing upward. What they have done to Iraq, they may soon have the opportunity to do on our own border.

First, the New York Times reports that the privatization of security in Iraq has been acknowledged to be a mess and a disaster. This according to an internal State Department report, and an audit by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction.

A State Department review of its own security practices in Iraq assails the department for poor coordination, communication, oversight and accountability involving armed security companies like Blackwater USA, according to people who have been briefed on the report. In addition to Blackwater, the State Department’s two other security contractors in Iraq are DynCorp International and Triple Canopy.

At the same time, a government audit expected to be released Tuesday says that records documenting the work of DynCorp, the State Department’s largest contractor, are in such disarray that the department cannot say “specifically what it received” for most of the $1.2 billion it has paid the company since 2004 to train the police officers in Iraq.

The review was ordered last month by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and did not include the recent massacre of seventeen Iraqi civilians by Blackwater “guards.” The FBI gets to investigate that one.

But in presenting its recommendations to Ms. Rice in a 45-minute briefing on Monday, the four-member panel found serious fault with virtually every aspect of the department’s security practices, especially in and around Baghdad, where Blackwater has responsibility.

Not much new, in that. Virtually every aspect of everything the Bush Administration has done in Iraq has been found to be at serious fault. If the words “serious fault” can somehow encapsulate mass murder, torture, and a humanitarian crisis that has created more than 4,000,000 refugees.

The report also urged the department to work with the Pentagon to develop a strict set of rules on how to deal with the families of Iraqi civilians who are killed or wounded by armed contractors, and to improve coordination between American contractors and security guards employed by agencies, like various Iraqi ministries.

Strict rules would be nice for a lot of things, in Iraq, but this borders on the surreal. Strict rules for dealing with the families of civilians who are killed and wounded?

“Oops. Sorry. Have some money, and we’ll try not to kill anyone else. Today.”

How about some strict rules in pursuance of the goal of not killing or wounding civilians? 

The audit by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction has to do with the waste and fraud of DynCorp, who were supposed to be building police training facilities and training police. There were exactly two government employees monitoring the efforts. DynCorp has been caught overcharging the government by $29,000,000 in the past year. DynCorp says the number is insignificant, because they’ve been paid $1,200,000,000, since 2004! Isn’t that reassuring? Because the results have been so worth the money. And because those two government employees couldn’t possibly have missed any waste and fraud in previous years.

Rep. Henry Waxman is investigating, and wants the reports delivered to him by November 2. I’m guessing the deadline won’t be met. The larger issue is, of course, the beyond casual manner with which the Bush Administration tosses away billions of dollars to private contractors, who continue to fail at everything they do, while funding for things such as children’s health insurance is just to hard to find. This is the Republican ethos. This is conservative ideology laid bare.

Even more disturbing, though, is what Blackwater plans to do next. Salon has this one:

There are signs that Blackwater USA, the private security firm that came under intense scrutiny after its employees killed 17 civilians in Iraq in September, is positioning itself for direct involvement in U.S. border security. The company is poised to construct a major new training facility in California, just eight miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. While contracts for U.S. war efforts overseas may no longer be a growth industry for the company, Blackwater executives have lobbied the U.S. government since at least 2005 to help train and even deploy manpower for patrolling America’s borders.

One need not be paranoid to see the problem here. A private army, whose CEO, Erik Prince, has close ties to the religious right, and which has been murderously out of control in Iraq, wants now to be involved in border security. And is building a “major new training facility” in California.

lackwater is planning to build an 824-acre military-style training complex in Potrero, Calif., a rural hamlet 45 miles east of San Diego. The company’s proposal, which was approved last December by the Potrero Community Planning Group and has drawn protest from within the Potrero community, will turn a former chicken ranch into “Blackwater West,” the company’s second-largest facility in the country. It will include a multitude of weapons firing ranges, a tactical driving track, a helipad, a 33,000-square-foot urban simulation training area, an armory for storing guns and ammunition, and dorms and classrooms. And it will be located in the heart one of the most active regions in the United States for illegal border crossings.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection denies specific plans to work with Blackwater, which makes one wonder if there are any non-specific plans. Blackwater also says the facility will be used to train government officials, under existing contracts.

But statements and lobbying activity by Blackwater officials, and the location for the new complex, strongly suggest plans to get involved in border security, with potential contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Moreover, Blackwater enjoys support from powerful Republican congressmen who advocate hard-line border policies, including calls for deploying private agents to beef up the ranks of the U.S. Border Patrol. Lawmakers supporting Blackwater include California Rep. and presidential candidate Duncan Hunter — who met last year with company officials seeking his advice on the proposal for Blackwater West — and Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, who is sponsoring a bill to allow private contractors such as Blackwater to help secure U.S. borders.

Action item: call your congressional representatives and senators and demand that they vote down the Rogers bill! We have seen the disastrous consequences of hiring private military contractors in Iraq- we want to shut them down, not reward them by allowing them to practice the same tactics on our own border!

A Blackwater spokesman says they have no current contracts for border security, but would like some. They have been trying to get such contracts since 2005. Hunter has been helping them in that quest. There has been more doubletalk from both Blackwater and government officials, trying to allay fears about the new training facility, but Prince himself has expressed that Blackwater is trying to diversify its operations, particularly now that Iraq is becoming a less lucrative market. The Salon article points out that with immigration and border security an increasingly strong subject of Republican concern, it doesn’t take a great leap of logic to assume that Blackwater might be interested. And Blackwater’s ties to the Bush Administration are both strong and deep.

Of course, Blackwater isn’t the only private military contractor who might be interested in sucking up your tax dollars to lawlessly patrol our borders. The article mentions another company that’s vying for such action: DynCorp.

Are you angry and frightened, yet?

 

Pony Party, some Halloween fun

Only a few more days until I’m back in full force!!  This week has turned out to be a little more challenging than the last 2, as we have a few consults and whatnot before we can be discharged from therapy. 

If anyone has any experience with or knows anything about wrist fusion, I’d be grateful to hear about it, as we have a pretty tough decision to make…

Article 140, the Kurds, and Turkey: Explaining the Current Crisis

Elements of the PKK based in the Kurdish northern part of Iraq recently conducted a cross-border raid into Turkey and took, they claim, eight Turkish soldiers hostage. 

What follows is a speculation about why they did that.  I have not read this speculation in the traditional media, which strikes me as a reason to believe that it’s correct.  If it is, then the Bush Admistration has a bigger problem, even, than they are letting on.  The White House has been performing an extremely unstable balancing act with Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government vis-a-vis Kirkuk.  The PKK move, I suspect, has blown it up.

I speculate that the PKK is holding the eight Turkish soldiers it claims to have captured, hostage, in order to pressure Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki and the Bush Administration into allowing the Kirkuk referendum to go through this year, as required by article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution.

So the PKK has taken eight Turkish soldiers as hostages.

Stratfor writes, in a recent analysis:

Arab newspapers report that Kurdish parties in Iraq are working to reverse the demographics of Kirkuk by paying Arabs to relocate. Arabs leaving Kirkuk are being paid approximately $16,248 per family to leave the city, according to Dubai-based Gulf News.

The process of “Kurdifying” the ancient, multiethnic and oil-rich city of Kirkuk has been going on for awhile and is, for Iraqi Kurds, a vital step toward financial independence. Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite factions all have a vested interest in making sure Kirkuk’s oil wealth does not officially fall under the Kurds’ control, however, and are actively working to settle more Arabs in the city in order to shift the demographics back in their favor.

This tug-of-war over Kirkuk will intensify in the coming months as the constitutional deadline approaches. Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution stipulates that the final status of Kirkuk and other disputed areas is supposed to be settled in a local referendum by the end of 2007. For the referendum to take place, Kirkuk must first be demographically “normalized” and a census must be conducted. But Iraq’s central government has put enough obstacles in place to prevent the census from being taken.

The LA Times affirms half of this speculation in today’s paper.  The LA Times writes that Kurds suspect that Turkey is acting warlike at the moment in order to prevent the Kirkuk referendum.  The idea, here, is that Turkey doesn’t actually care about the PKK or their own Turkish soldiers that much — they just want to prevent a strong Kurdish region from developing. 

Iraq’s Kurds suspect Ankara is flexing its military might in part because it wants to weaken Iraqi Kurdistan and exert pressure on the Kurds over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The city is home to a Turkmen population, as well as Arabs and Kurds. Turkey has warned the city should not be annexed to Iraqi Kurdistan.

With a November deadline for a referendum on its future about to pass, Kirkuk’s future remains unsettled. “The aim is to really just weaken and decrease the Kurdish region and make it weaker and smaller,” said Kurdish parliament member Mahmoud Othman. “They are not aiming at the PKK.”

Many Iraqi Kurds, haunted by their tragic history under Saddam Hussein, worry that the country’s Arab-led central government will try to roll back their hard-won freedoms in the north, be it their ability to negotiate oil contracts independently of Baghdad or to celebrate Kurdish culture. They fear that the issue of the PKK is pretext for an effort to erode their privileges.

But the other half of this, though, is the idea that the PKK, by taking eight Turkish soldiers hostage, is giving itself and the KRG an extra bargaining chip.  This will be giving the Bush Administration a big headache, as the Bush Administration has been going along with Baghdad in slow-walking the Kirkuk referendum.  Bush thought he could do two contrary things:

(1) Be friendly with the Kurds, including not going hard militarily against the PKK.

(2) Not give the Kurds the Kirkuk referendum.

But this move by PKK collapses the illusion that the White House could do both.

Heretofore, the US has tried to balance (1) and (2) by pleading an inability to go after the PKK.  This is a useful claim because it could at least placate Baghdad and Turkey; hold them at bay.  The New York Times puts it like this in today’s paper:

The United States lists the P.K.K. as a terrorist organization, but American military commanders in Baghdad have long resisted calls by Turkey to devote American military resources to going after the group in mountainous northern Iraq. The commanders say they have barely enough troops to deal with the insurgency in Iraq, so using them to contain the P.K.K. has never been a serious option.

You can be sure that in the midst of all the “emergency calls” between Secretary of State Rice and the leaders of the KRG, that several things are happening.  As reported publically, Rice is telling the Kurdish Regional Government to crack down on the PKK.  But we can be confident that Rice is also assuring the KRG that they will get their Kirkuk referendum sooner or later.  And we can be confident that the KRG is telling her that “sooner or later” is not good enough; it must be this year, as the Iraqi Constitution requires.

Here is what we’re reading in the papers about those calls.  New York Times:

President Bush discussed Turkey’s concerns with Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq during a video conference on Monday. “The prime minister agreed with President Bush that Turkey should have no doubt about our mutual commitment to end all terrorist activity from Iraqi soil,” said a White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe.

Administration officials said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had told Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Iraqi Kurdish region, in a telephone call that the relative peace and prosperity of Iraqi Kurdistan was at risk because of the cross-border attacks by the P.K.K.

“Relative prosperity of Iraqi Kurdistan” I take to be code for “Kirkuk”, as well as for White House winking at KRG oil contracts generally.

The LA Times last night (same link) reported that the PKK offered a truce to Turkey, the PKK saying, “If the Turkish state stops the attacks, this escalating environment of tension will turn into a clash-free one.”

But CNN is now reporting that Turkey rejects the offer.

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan rejected reports of an apparent cease-fire offer from Kurdish separatists Tuesday after arriving in Baghdad for talks with Iraqi leaders aimed at defusing tensions along the countries’ shared border.

Babacan says that no truce can be held with a “terrorist organization”, which is both tactically predictable and also, one assumes, perfectly fair: the EU and the US also call the PKK a terrorist organization.

With 60,000 Turkish troops massing close to the country’s south-eastern frontier, Erdogan’s government faces growing public pressure to take action following a weekend PKK ambush which left at least 12 Turkish soldiers dead and eight more missing.

— snip —

In a telephone call Monday, U.S. President George W. Bush expressed “deep concern” over the attack and told Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul that Washington was urging Iraqi action against the PKK. The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union.

There might not be any way out of this.  The White House can’t give the KRG its referendum.  Baghdad will not allow it.  Turkey won’t stand for it.  But the KRG demands it and the PKK now claims to have Turkish hostages, intending, I suspect, to force it.

It’s going to be an interesting two months, as we run up to the end-of-year deadline for Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution.

Docudharma Times Tuesday Oct. 23

This is an Open Thread. Let’s Talk.

Editorial
Even Closer to the Brink
Published: October 23, 2007

The news out of Iraq just keeps getting worse. Now Turkey is threatening to send troops across the border to wipe out Kurdish rebel bases, after guerrillas killed at least a dozen Turkish soldiers. This latest crisis should have come as no surprise. But it is one more widely predicted problem the Bush administration failed to plan for before its misguided invasion – and one more problem it urgently needs to deal with as part of a swift and orderly exit from Iraq.

Turkey’s anger is understandable. Guerrillas from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.K.K., have been striking from bases in Iraqi Kurdistan with growing impunity and effect, using plastic explosives, mines and arms that are far too readily accessible in Iraq. The death toll for Turkish military forces is mounting.

USA

250,000 Urged to Flee in California as Fires Spread
By RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD
Published: October 23, 2007

LOS ANGELES, Oct. 22 – More than a quarter of a million people were urged to flee their homes on Monday as wildfires ravaged Southern California for a second day, destroying hundreds of homes and businesses and charring swaths of scrub and forestland.
The fires, a Hydra with at least 15 separate burns in seven counties fed by gale-force winds, burned some 267,000 acres from Santa Barbara to the Mexican border. Engines and firefighters from as far as Nevada and Arizona were summoned as resources were stretched to the limit.

Houses burned with no firefighters in sight as emergency crews on the ground and in the air struggled to keep up with shifting wind that fanned new fires and made others recede and reignite.

Senators Say White House Cut Deal With Panel on FISA
Documents Said to Be Traded for Telecom Immunity

By Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 23, 2007; Page A09

Senate Judiciary Committee members yesterday angrily accused the White House of allowing the Senate Intelligence Committee to review documents on its warrantless surveillance program in return for agreeing that telecommunications companies should get immunity from lawsuits.

Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.) and Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.), the ranking Republican, said any such agreement would be “unacceptable,” signaling that legislation granting immunity to certain telecom carriers could run into trouble. Leahy and Specter demanded that the documents, which were provided only to the Intelligence Committee, be turned over to the Judiciary Committee as well.

GOP team revives electoral vote initiative
The intent is to change California’s winner-take-all system, which would give Republicans an edge in the presidential race.
By Dan Morain and Joe Mathews, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
October 23, 2007
SACRAMENTO — Veteran GOP consultants said Monday that they were relaunching a drive to change the way California allocates its electoral college votes, aimed at helping the 2008 Republican presidential nominee capture the White House.

Political strategist David Gilliard said he was taking over the ballot initiative campaign, along with strategist Ed Rollins and fundraiser Anne Dunsmore. Consultant Mike Arno will oversee the signature-gathering effort.
“Our budget is going to be whatever it takes to make the June ballot,” said Gilliard, who played a key role in getting the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis onto the 2003 ballot.

Middle East

Bin Laden urges Iraq insurgents to unite
BAGHDAD – Osama bin Laden scolded his al-Qaida followers in Iraq and other insurgents, saying they have “been lax” for failing to overcome fanatical tribal loyalties and unite in the fight against U.S. troops.
The message of his new audiotape Monday reflected the growing disarray among Iraq’s Sunni Arab insurgents and bin Laden’s client group in the country, both of which are facing heavy U.S. military pressure and an uprising among Sunni tribesmen.

In the brief tape played on Al-Jazeera television, the terrorist leader urged militants to “beware of division … The Muslim world is waiting for you to gather under one banner.”

Israel accused after 30 injured in prison battle
By Donald Macintyre in Jerusalem
Published: 23 October 2007

A Palestinian prisoner was in a serious condition in hospital last night after pitched battles between prison officers and detainees at the remote Ketziot prison left at least 30 people injured.

The Israeli Prison Service said yesterday that staff used “non lethal devices” to quell what it said was widespread rioting by mainly Hamas prisoners after it began a search for contraband, weapons and mobile phones in the early hours of yesterday.

Palestinian officials responsible for prisoners’ welfare said the guards – believed to be members of the prison service’s Nahshon security force -used teargas and rubber bullets after prisoners reacted to what they said was an unusually timed search as they slept.

Europe

US missile deal may face obstacles
PRAGUE, Czech Republic – The Bush administration wants deals by the end of the year for missile defense bases in Eastern Europe, but getting the Czech Republic and Poland to go along with that timetable could be difficult.
Poland’s opposition party ousted ruling conservatives in parliamentary elections on Sunday, though Defense Secretary Robert Gates suggested Monday he still believes Warsaw will cooperate.

The Pentagon wants to install 10 interceptor rockets in Poland which, when linked to a proposed tracking radar in the Czech Republic and to other elements of the existing U.S. missile defense system based in the United States, could defend all of Europe against a long-range missile fired from the Middle East.

Poll winner: I will end Poland’s isolation
By Daniel McLaughlin in Warsaw
Published: 23 October 2007

Poland’s victorious Civic Platform promised to return the country to Europe’s mainstream and push for swift adoption of the euro after ousting Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski yesterday.

With 99 per cent of votes counted following Sunday’s election, Civic Platform had 209 seats in the 460-seat parliament, with the Law and Justice party of Mr Kaczynski on 166 seats. The Left and Democrats bloc had 53 seats and the Polish Peasants Party claimed 31. One independent deputy also won re-election.

Civic Platform is expected to form an alliance with the moderate, pro-EU Polish Peasants Party, with which it has co-operated successfully at local level and which has a strong rural power base to complement its own urban popularity. Coalition talks will begin this week, with a final decision on 10 November, Civic Platform officials said.

Americas

US official urges passage of trade deal
NEW YORK – The Bush administration warned Monday that failure by Congress to adopt a free trade agreement with Colombia would bolster the anti-American campaign of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said that refusal by lawmakers to pass the agreement “will embolden someone like Hugo Chavez to think that he can make hay out of that crisis, and it will be a crisis if the free trade agreement does not pass.”

Africa

Ethiopia ONLF rebels say killed 250 troops
NAIROBI (Reuters) – Ethiopia’s Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) rebels said further fighting with security forces in the nation’s remote east had brought the number of government soldiers killed to more than 250.
The Ethiopian government has been denying ONLF reports of mass casualties as falsehoods spread by their foreign-based supporters. No independent verification has been possible.

Facing several insurgencies in remote areas, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s government has waged an unprecedented offensive against the ONLF after they killed 74 people during a raid on a Chinese-run oil exploration field earlier this year.

Somali government frees WFP head
The head of the World Food Programme in Somalia has been freed after six days of detention by government forces.

Idris Osman was seized in an armed raid on the United Nations compound in Mogadishu, allegedly as part of an investigation into unspecified crimes.

The UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon had condemned the arrest as “forceful and illegal”.

Mr Osman’s arrest halted food distribution to some 75,000 people displaced by recent fighting.

Asia-Pacific

Claims of Maori separatist plot begin to unravel
By Kathy Marks, Asia-Pacific Correspondent
Published: 23 October 2007

A week after 17 people were arrested in anti-terrorist raids, New Zealanders are asking whether their security forces foiled an astonishing plot by militant Maori separatists – or whether they made a monumental error of judgement.

Extreme secrecy surrounds the affair, with only two of the 17 detainees being identified and the media excluded from court hearings. But those held in dawn raids across the nation are said to include a mixture of white anarchists and environmental activists as well as Maori radicals.

As well as swooping on homes in cities including Auckland and Wellington, police sealed off a hamlet in the Ureweras, a mountainous area of the North Island, which they claim was the site of terrorist training camps. The isolated, thickly forested region, home to the Tuhoe tribe, is now the focus of national attention.

Asia

Bhutto accuses government of cover-up in suicide bombing

Declan Walsh in Karachi
Tuesday October 23, 2007
The Guardian

Benazir Bhutto yesterday accused the Pakistani government of staging a cover-up after it refused her request for British and American experts to join the inquiry into last Thursday’s suicide bombing.

“If people have nothing to hide then they should be open to investigators from all over the world,” the former prime minister told a press conference at her closely guarded Karachi home. “It’s simply not right that attempts should be made to cover up an assassination attempt … Obviously some people are being protected.”

Earlier the interior minister, Aftab Khan Sherpao, rejected her call for foreign technical help. “I would categorically reject this. We are conducting the investigation in a very objective manner,” he said.

Burma allows human rights visit
The military government in Burma has agreed to allow the UN’s expert on human rights to visit after refusing permission for four years.

Paolo Sergio Pinheiro, who visits countries to check on their human rights performance, made repeated requests to visit during that time.

Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win wrote to the UN suggesting that Mr Pinheiro could arrive before mid-November.

The UN’s special envoy to Burma is also hoping to be allowed to return soon.

Muse in the Morning

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Muse in the Morning

The muses are ancient.  The inspirations for our stories were said to be born from them.  Muses of song and dance, or poetry and prose, of comedy and tragedy, of the inward and the outward.  In one version they are Calliope, Euterpe and Terpsichore, Erato and Clio, Thalia and Melpomene, Polyhymnia and Urania.

It has also been traditional to name a tenth muse.  Plato declared Sappho to be the tenth muse, the muse of women poets.  Others have been suggested throughout the centuries.  I don’t have a name for one, but I do think there should be a muse for the graphical arts.  And maybe there should be many more.

Please join us inside to celebrate our various muses…

In 1992 I learned to speak my truths.  They were tentative at first, hardly more than notes about the reality of my life.  Later some of them became poems.  Still later, more poems were added to add the view of hindsight.  I’ve tried to arrange them into a cohesive whole.  Maybe it works.  Maybe it has more meaning this way.

Welcome to Camp Gloom and Doom.

A Transition through Poetry II

Art Link

Mask

The Mask

My life was a mask I wore
to hide my secrets
Bleak, flat, colorless,
bland was my world
filled with responsibility
devoid of joy
Anguish washes away
meaningful emotion
The mask blinded me
to life’s possibilities
tunnel vision
eroding hope
love tainted by a lie
so immense
it can’t be seen
Lies piled upon lies
a false truth
that comforted
everybody
but me
Meaning dwindled
distorted
Heart broken
blackened
Soul warped
crushed
The walls
of my reality
were too close
Going forward
requires
destroying
the mask

–Robyn Elaine Serven
–January 17, 2006

I know you have talent.  What sometimes is forgotten is that being practical is a talent.  I have a paucity for that sort of talent in many situations, though it turns out that I’m a pretty darn good cook.  🙂 

Let your talent bloom.  You can share it here.  Encourage others to let it bloom inside them as well.

Won’t you share your words or art, your sounds or visions, your thoughts scientific or philosophic, the comedy or tragedy of your days, the stories of doing and making?  And be excellent to one another!

Think Differently: An Idea, and a Calculus Link

If anything defines the thrust of my postings here, it is a repeated exhortation both to myself and to others to think about things differently.  To me, this is of upmost importance.  Far too often, we are limited in our thinking by predefined boundaries or conceptions.  This has the result of limiting our answer set to the various questions we ask ourselves, often without our even knowing it.

This is not an original thought on my part: what is more a cliché of our times than to “think outside the box”?  Yet, we do not think outside the box very often at all, and no place less than in the political arena.  Take, for example, the issue of public education in American politics.  What are the major political issues relating to this subject?  Vouchers, class size, teachers’ unions, merit pay, increased spending per student, standardized testing, and charter schools.  These issues have been the major political issues regarding public education for at least the last decade, the period of time that I have been a voting citizen in the US.  And the sides in the debate are fairly static; Democrats are good for reducing class size, higher spending per student, and supporting teachers’ unions, Republicans are good for vouchers, charter schools, and supporters of merit pay and standardized testing.  We are left with both a supposed “crisis” in public education which is persistent (and in many ways mythical) as well as with a static debate, with political impasse allowing for these issues to remain dominant and no theoretical reforms ever fully implemented.  Ideas outside of this spectrum, such as the expansion of either the school day or school year, tend to lack partisan support from either side and languish, undebated and unimplemented.
 

Why does this impasse persist, particularly if both voters (based on polling) and politicians (based on public statements) feel that our public education system is in crisis and of the upmost importance?  First of all, because the impasse feeds itself.  Failure to dismantle teachers’ unions leads to resentment and opposition by the proponents of the strategy.  The difficulty of the task leads to the formation of interest groups and lobbys to promote that agenda.  The concerted effort by proponents of dismantling teachers’ unions leads to the formation of counter-interest groups and lobbys.  As the battle consumes more resources from proponents of both opinions, fewer resources are able to be devoted to other concerns.  Second, people tend to associate difficulty with value.  The more effort put into an endeavor or demanded by an endeavor, the more important the endeavor becomes.  This is a concept which has been articulated by the President regarding Iraq: he claims that the prior investment of life and wealth into the endeavor is primary evidence of the import of the attempt.

But if we can recognize the fallacy of the President’s reasoning regarding Iraq, why do we, intentionally or otherwise, fall for it on other issues such as education?  Or is it not always a fallacy?  Certainly, some achievements are quantitatively more impressive due to no other factors than degree of difficulty.  If I have scaled a mountain, that would be mildly impressive.  If I had scaled Everest, people generally would find that more impressive.  Certainly, part of that is due to notoriety – more of you have heard of Everest than of other equally or more difficult mountain climbs – but generally speaking, the more difficult a mountain climb, the more impressive the feat.  So we can say that, in some absolute sense, the degree of difficulty does impact the value of the achievement – both in terms of its actual value, and in terms of the incentives to those making the attempt.  The incentive angle is also of crucial importance: individuals are more likely to attempt tasks when the rewards, both selfish and altruistic, are highest.

We can safely presume that the issues which dominate political debate on education are those which the various adherents consider to be those with the greatest potential rewards.  Advocates of school vouchers, increased per student spending, lower class size, and dismantling of teachers’ unions all tend to believe that these “solutions” will result in remarkable gains.  However, the political impasse over these issues ensure that those gains remain potential ones, rather than actualized gains.  Meanwhile, other issues, which may offer substantially lower gains, are not acted upon due to the lack of political import those issues have.  Yet, due to the lack of impasse over those issues, those lower potential gains have a greater possibility of becoming actualized gains.

Examine the problem mathematically.  One proposal has the potential to help fifty million students.  Another proposal has the potential to help five hundred thousand, a mere 1% of the population proposal A will help.  Yet, proposal A will require a concerted political effort of at least one decade, during which time it will dominate the debate.  Proposal B requires an effort of only one year, costing a fraction of the resources and providing for both the immediate assistance of 1% of the affected student population, and allowing for 90% of the minimum required time to accomplish proposal A to be allocated to other concerns.  The sensible course would appear to be to pursue proposal B; it allows for a higher chance of success, greater immediate returns, and costs a fraction of the resources, allowing them to be allocated to other concerns.

This is of course grossly simplified; politics is an adversarial process, and one political party choosing to remove focus from proposal A could well result in their opponents achieving victory on that issue, meaning that proposal B’s success could ensure proposal A’s failure.  And many upon many other complications exist.  Yet there is another inescapable problem: the above issues dominate the debate over considerable time, yet very little movement takes place on those issues, meaning that since these issues came to the fore, an entire generation of students have passed through the public education system with little substantive improvements to the system.  And to forbear mild improvements in the quest for substantial improvement has costs that can also be actualized.  We can, for instance, measure the time dedicated to the pursuit of a goal and contrast that with the costs of other, more humble goals not having been achieved.  If it takes, for example, one hundred and one years to implement proposal A when proposal B could have been achieved in one year, then the number of people who did not gain from proposal B outnumbers the number of people who will now be served by proposal A.

I realize that this is rapidly becoming both pedantic and reductive, and I apologize.  But I am trying to demonstrate what I feel is a considerable problem in today’s politics.  We tend to view politics out of context: we see political ideas and philosophies as individual entities, taken on their own merits.  But none of these ideas or policies exist independently, they are all part of a single system.  A finite amount of resources, both in terms of wealth and in human capital, exists.  Often, choices must be made between multiple worthy goals.  Wide arrays of interest groups will support, oppose, and profiteer off of possible policies as well.  Those groups will affect how policies get implemented as well.  The AMA and pharmaceutical corporations support the expansion of S-CHIP, because it will increase their wealth and influence.  Those same organizations whose support is essential to making S-CHIP expansion politically possible are deeply opposed to price negotiation and other aspects of single-payer health care which are key to making such policies cost beneficial to taxpayers.  This means that the national health care plans offered by Sen. Clinton and Gov. Romney, for example, will provide the guarantees of care that single-payer plans offer, but not the price reduction.  Is there a cost threshold beyond which universal health insurance is not a worthwhile investment for the American people?  Is a plan offering some of the benefits which is possible without major resistance worth declining, possibly forever, the full spectrum of benefits?

It is my belief that the netroots is the first step in the fulfillment of the original promise of the American Republic – that this will be a nation where the American people will be truly sovereign, and empowered to govern themselves.  But, in our infancy as a movement, we are currently being exposed as being as unready as we are to be self-ruled.  The displeasure and dissatisfaction with the results of the 2006 elections is manifest, and has resulted in not only deep displeasure with our President and our Congress, but with displeasure with the netroots, this site and others, from the netroots themselves.

Many of us take this as a sign of a failure of leadership, by the Democrats and Republicans in power, by the pundits and journalists of the conventional press, and by the leaders of this site and others in the netroots themselves.  I disagree with that.  My belief is that we should have expected these exact results from political leaders, journalists, and the netroots.  And this failure is significantly ours, yours and mine.  We are remarkably primitive in our abilities to be self-ruled and self-led.  These muscles were not nurtured and atrophied, and we must do the heavy lifting to build them up to the required strength to use them properly.  We need to practice thinking differently.  We must learn to be keepers of ourselves before we can master being our brother’s keeper.

Let’s begin with an exercise.  Here is a story about reasoning out when to first say “I love you” to a partner, considered in calculus.  Read it, and think about love, that most intangible of human values, a bit differently.  And then, let’s start the process of applying the same kind of exploration to the rest of our beliefs and lives.

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