February 6, 2011 archive

Is the Unemployment Rate Really Only 9.0 %?

No doubt the Obama administration will tout today’s news that unemployment has fallen .4% to 9.0% as an indication the US economy is improving. It will be quite a back aching twist of logic in the face of poor job growth of only 36,000 jobs in January far below expectations. So what’s really happening? David Dayen at FDL explains the drop in the face of such dismal job growth:

How does this happen? Well, January is always a month when the establishment survey gets revised. New population estimates get incorporated into the survey, and the seasonal adjustment factors get updated. So there is a difference in the January survey of 600,000 less unemployed people; that number is down to 13.9 million according to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Does this mean that those people got a job in this month? Not really. The employment/ population ratio rose slightly to 58.4%, and the labor force participation rate declined to 64.2%, the lowest rate since the early 1980s. Basically, the drop in the top line unemployment rate is entirely due to changes in the total population estimates and other adjustments.

The U-6, which counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work, is currently 16.1%.

Another explanation of the job growth numbers is the horrendous weather across the country since late December:

January’s snowstorms probably had some effect on the anemic numbers, given that sectors like construction and transportation and warehousing shed jobs. The private sector added 50,000 jobs, so government layoffs, particularly at the state and local level, also restrained growth. Analysts had forecast an increase of about 145,000.

However, the real problem is what kind of jobs are being created, the number of people who have had to settle for part time employment as their job benefits run out and the number of jobless who are no longer counted in the numbers that are reported.

The other bad news is, this rate may not hold since austerity measures by the states and localities, facing huge budget deficits and no hope of relief from Congress, will most likely be laying off huge numbers of workers in attempts to salvage education and other vital programs.

President Barack Obama’s goal of driving the unemployment rate below 9 percent this year is threatened by state and local budget cuts that are likely to intensify as Federal stimulus money runs out.

Austerity measures may add as much as 0.25 percentage point to the unemployment rate this year, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics Inc.

“This could make the difference between ending 2011 with unemployment above or below 9 percent,” he said. “There’s no more serious drag on economic growth than the severe budget cutbacks at the state and local level.”

Cross Posted from The Stars Hollow Gazette

Super Bowl XLV Open Thread: The Packers and the Steelers

The Green Bay Packers: Cheese Heads of the People

Rachel reports in how the history and financing of the Green Bay Packers makes it a unique team.

The Steelers Have Already Lost

by Howard Fineman

WASHINGTON — As a Pittsburgh native it pains me to say this but here goes: Even if the Steelers win the Super Bowl, they’ve already lost.

Fate, fashion and their own faults combine to put the Steelers in a no-win situation in Sunday’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers.

The Steelers are the bad guys. There is nothing they can do about it. If they win, it’s because they are rotten and brutal, or so it will be said. If they lose, they will have deserved it, because they are rotten and brutal, or so it will be said.

Why? Well, let’s start where we must, with Big Ben. His actions last year in that Georgia college town — even though they didn’t result in criminal charges — are too awful for most of the country, and (still) for many people in Pittsburgh, to stomach. Where diehard Steelers fans see a brave quarterback, millions of others see a cowardly, spoiled kid who used his posse to assist his sexual predations.

There is some more Super Bowl Fun that will be taking place at The Stars Hollow Gazette:

Not Watching the Hype which is for your alternative viewing pleasure if you’re not a football fan at 5:45 am

Fun with puppies and pooties continues with Puppy Bowl VII (with Bissell Kitty Halftime Show) at 2:45 pm

An the Grand Finale starts at 5:45 pm when the live blog of the Super Bowl XLV: Steelers v. Packers begins.

Potemkin America

Check it out.  The father of raygunomics now writes to the “CT” community and calls America Potemkin.

http://www.infowars.com/potemk…

Bob Dean, the retired sargent major featured by Project Camelot introduced me to that concept of a love hate relationship with the human species.  We could be so great, but we are not.

A Lasthorseman book recommend.

http://www.ponerology.com/

To be truely effective a tin foil hat must be connected to an eight foot earth ground rod.  This limits mobility.

TWiEC: Winds of Change in the Middle East – as Seen By Foreign and American Editorial Cartoonists

Crossposted at Daily Kos and The Stars Hollow Gazette



Walk Like an Egyptian by Dwayne Booth, Mr. Fish, Buy this cartoon  

It’s spontaneous, yes, triggered by the explosion in Tunisia.  But contrary to some media reports, which have portrayed the upsurge in Egypt as a leaderless rebellion, a fairly well organized movement is emerging to take charge, comprising students, labor activists, lawyers, a network of intellectuals, Egypt’s Islamists, a handful of political parties and miscellaneous advocates for “change.”  And it’s possible, but not at all certain, that the nominal leadership of the revolution could fall to Mohammad ElBaradei.

— ‘Who’s Behind Egypt’s Revolt?’ by Robert Dreyfuss, The Nation

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