Intro: This is the first in a series that I’ve been running at dailyKos and SwingStateProject… the series isn’t over in either of those places, so I’ll post more quickly here, if there is interest, so that eventually all three places will be getting the same stuff. It’s also a bit of an experiment – I’m feeling out the territory here. If you like the series, let me know, and it will continue. If not, well, I do have two other outlets for it. Most of those diaries covered more than one state.
The order of states was by the date of their filing deadline, but it’s a bit messed up now.
I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are running and not running; and where the Republicans are running and not running (I am not going to look in detail at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU, and informed by the great Race Tracker Wiki (links throughout).
Ohio has 18 Congressional House districts. 7 held by Democrats:
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican
OH-06 - D+0, .72. No confirmed challenger.
OH-09 - D+9, .44. No confirmed challenger.
OH-10 - D+6, .42. Confirmed challenger (and primary opponents to
OH-11 - D+33, .07. No confirmed challenger.
OH-13 - D+6, .45. No confirmed challenger.
OH-17 - D+14, .44. No confirmed challenger.
OH-18 - R+6, .77. Confirmed challenger.
so, there are only 2 races where there is a Republican challenger; they have a good chance in one of them (OH-18).
and there are 11 seats held by Republicans
There are confirmed challengers in 8 of those 11 districts:
OH-01 – R+1, .25. Chabot was first elected in 1994. in 2006, he won 52-48, outspending Cranley ($3 million to $2 million). This time, Dreihaus is running. He’s now in the state house, and got 67% in his last election.
OH-02 – R+13, .69. If the incumbent here was not Jean Schmidt, then this probably wouldn’t be close. But it is. In 2006, she beat Wulsin by 2,500 votes out of 238,000 cast. Wulsin is running again. In 2005, Schmidt beat Paul Hackett 52-48, while a year earlier, Bush beat Kerry by 64-36.
OH-03 – R+3, .45. Turner, first elected in 2002, has not been in a close contest. He’s outspent his opponents, but they’ve been serious opponents. In 2006, Crema raised $400,000 but lost, 59-41. In 2004, Mitakides raised $565,000 and lost 62-38 (Turner got 67,000 more votes than Bush did).
OH-12 – R+0.7, .40. Tiberi, first elected in 2002, has won easily, even, as in 2006, when his opponent was fairly well funded.
OH-14 – R+2, .74. LaTourette, first elected in 1994, has won easily, whether or not his opponent was funded. In 2004, for instance, LaTourrette got nearly 2/3 of the vote against Cafaro, even though Cafaro spent almost $2 million. LaTourrette, one of the most moderate Republicans, got 60,000 votes more than Bush. This dailyKos comment indicates that the current candidate (O’Neill) may do better.
OH-15 – R+1, .44. The rep here (Pryce) is retiring. In 2006, this was a very close race (Pryce beat Kilroy by 1,100 votes out of 220,000) and hugely expensive (Pryce spent nearly $5 million, Kilroy nearly $3 million). Now, Kilroy is running again, this time, without the handicap of being against an incumbent.
OH-16 – R+4, .64. Regula, first elected in 1972, is retiring. He won easily, but now, it’s a new ballgame; in 2004, Regula got 60,000 votes more than Bush.
And an unconfirmed challenger in 1 district:
OH-16 – R+10, .81. This seat was left vacant by the death of Gillmor. It was filled by Latta, who beat Weirauch 57-43 in a special election. Weirauch might run again see this comment .
That leaves two districts with no confirmed or unconfirmed candidate
And here they are:
OH-04 – R+14, .72. This is a solidly Republican seat, but Jordan is a freshman. In 2006, he won 60-40 over Siferd, but outspent Siferd by over a million. A candidate here might make the Republicans waste money.
Current: 7 D, 11 R
Outlook: 6 of 7 D are safe. 5 of 11 R look safe.
Best guess: We pick up 3 seats.